23 August 2026, 22:30 UTC

Coritiba vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result

Curitiba
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Coritiba 2-1 Corinthians.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Coritiba, 28% draw, 44% Corinthians — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Corinthians at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coritiba99%Draw1%Corinthians0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Pedro Rochaassist: Joao Pedro Chermont
40'
Thiago Santos
42'
42'
Breno Bidon
46'
🔁P. Milansout: M. Pereira
46'
🔁Pedro Raulout: M. Depay
🔁Thiago Santosout: Tissi
62'
🔁Pedro Rochaout: Paulo Roberto
62'
Vitor Gonçalves Tissi
67'
67'
Matheus Pereira
71'
🔁Breno Bidonout: Gui Negao
🔁J. Lavegaout: Fabinho
72'
72'
🔁A. Carrilloout: Dieguinho
⚽Paulo Robertoassist: Joao Pedro Chermont
75'
82'
🔁Kaio Cesarout: J. Lingard
🔁Joao Pedro Chermontout: Lucas Taverna
84'
🔁Josueout: Fernando Sobral
84'
90'
⚽Ranieleassist: Allan

Match stats — Coritiba vs Corinthians

35%Possession65%
12Shots16
3On target3
4Corners14
0.41xG0.68

Goals against chances

Coritiba2 from 0.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Corinthians1 from 0.68 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coritiba 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pedro MoriscoG
  • 44Joao Pedro ChermontD
  • 23Tiago CoserD
  • 55JacyD
  • 26Bruno MeloD
  • 21Thiago SantosM
  • 19S. GomezM
  • 7J. LavegaM
  • 10JosueM
  • 77Breno LopesM
  • 32Pedro RochaF
Substitutes
  • 13KeillerG
  • 3MaiconD
  • 6Felipe JonatanD
  • 86Lucas TavernaD
  • 4Rodrigo MoledoD
  • 16Joao AlmeidaD
  • 88Fernando SobralM
  • 50TissiM
  • 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
Coach: Seabra Fernando
Corinthians 4-2-3-1
  • 51KaueG
  • 20P. MilansD
  • 3Gabriel PaulistaD
  • 13Gustavo HenriqueD
  • 26F. AngileriD
  • 14RanieleM
  • 29AllanM
  • 37Kaio CesarM
  • 7Breno BidonM
  • 19A. CarrilloM
  • 18Pedro RaulF
Substitutes
  • 40Felipe LongoG
  • 46HugoD
  • 4Joao PedroD
  • 55I. MachadoD
  • 77J. LingardM
  • 23M. PereiraM
  • 80Alex SantanaM
  • 35Charles RigonM
  • 54BahiaM
Coach: Fernando Diniz

Form going into Coritiba vs Corinthians

Coritiba

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Sao Paulo16 August 2026
  • W2-1Chapecoense8 August 2026
  • L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026
  • D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
  • L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026

Corinthians

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
  • D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
  • W3-0Remo23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Coritiba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Coritiba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Coritiba34119144051-1142
17Corinthians34910153642-637

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Corinthians

  • 12 March 2026Corinthians 0–2 CoritibaSerie A
  • 7 December 2023Coritiba 0–2 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 13 August 2023Corinthians 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
  • 8 November 2022Coritiba 2–2 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 21 July 2022Corinthians 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
  • 26 November 2020Coritiba 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A

The full Coritiba vs Corinthians record →

Leading scorers: Coritiba and Corinthians

Coritiba

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro Rocha91
  • Breno Lopes81

Corinthians

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Coritiba beat Corinthians 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Corinthians at 44% and given a win for Coritiba 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Pedro Rocha 40' for Coritiba, Paulo Roberto 75' for Coritiba, Raniele 90' for Corinthians. On expected goals it finished 0.41–0.68.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.