23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC

Santos vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Santos 1-1 Mirassol.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Santos, 22% draw, 35% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.33, 4.55 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Santos at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Santos7%Draw89%Mirassol4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

João Schmidt
20'
22'
Gabriel Knesowitsch
24'
Neto Moura
28'
🔁Gabriel Knesowitschout: Lucas Oliveira
36'
⚽Eduardo
🔁Ronyout: Gabriel Bontempo
46'
🔁Joao Schmidtout: B. Rollheiser
61'
61'
🔁G. Cazonattiout: Wallisson
61'
🔁Eduardoout: Japa
⚽A. Barrealassist: Neymar
68'
70'
•Wallisson Luiz
73'
Wallisson Luiz
🔁A. Barrealout: Thaciano
74'
76'
Igor Formiga
78'
🔁Alessonout: Fernandinho
78'
🔁Bruno Santosout: Carlos Eduardo
🔁Gabriel Barbosaout: G. Caballero
82'
🔁Igor Viniciusout: D. Fernandes
82'
Neymar
88'

Match stats — Santos vs Mirassol

64%Possession36%
21Shots5
7On target3
10Corners2
1.46xG0.27

Goals against chances

Santos1 from 1.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mirassol1 from 0.27 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Santos 4-2-3-1
  • 77Gabriel BrazaoG
  • 18Igor ViniciusD
  • 15Willian AraoD
  • 14Luan PeresD
  • 31G. EscobarD
  • 48Gustavo HenriqueM
  • 5Joao SchmidtM
  • 11RonyM
  • 10NeymarM
  • 22A. BarrealM
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Substitutes
  • 34Joao PauloG
  • 42Joao AlencarD
  • 26Joao AnaniasD
  • 81S. PierriM
  • 30MiguelitoM
  • 8Gabriel BontempoM
  • 16ThacianoM
  • 28C. OlivaM
  • 17G. CaballeroF
Coach: Cuca
Mirassol 3-4-1-2
  • 22WalterG
  • 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
  • 34Joao VictorD
  • 3Willian MachadoD
  • 32Igor FormigaM
  • 55G. CazonattiM
  • 25Neto Moura
  • 6ReinaldoM
  • 33EduardoF
  • 30Bruno SantosF
  • 77AlessonF
Substitutes
  • 23Alex MuralhaG
  • 12Victor LuisD
  • 20Daniel BorgesD
  • 2Lucas OliveiraD
  • 80WallissonM
  • 10Chico KimM
  • 7ShaylonM
  • 5JapaM
  • 17FernandinhoF
Coach: Guanaes Rafael

Form going into Santos vs Mirassol

Santos

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
  • L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Sao Paulo29 July 2026
  • D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026

Mirassol

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
  • W2-1Remo29 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
  • W2-1Gremio17 July 2026

What these results say

  • Santos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Santos conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Santos had three goals or more.
  • Mirassol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Mirassol.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Santos341211115049+147
14Mirassol341010143948-940

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santos vs Mirassol

  • 11 March 2026Mirassol 2–2 SantosSerie A
  • 20 November 2025Santos 1–1 MirassolSerie A
  • 19 July 2025Mirassol 3–0 SantosSerie A
  • 17 January 2025Santos 2–1 MirassolPaulista - A1
  • 12 October 2024Santos 3–2 MirassolSerie B
  • 26 June 2024Mirassol 0–0 SantosSerie B

The full Santos vs Mirassol record →

Leading scorers: Santos and Mirassol

Santos

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Barbosa154
  • Neymar83

Mirassol

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santos and Mirassol drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Santos at 43% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Eduardo 36' for Mirassol, A. Barreal 68' for Santos. Sent off: Wallisson Luiz (Mirassol) 73'. On expected goals it finished 1.46–0.27.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.