Santos
vs
Mirassol
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 34% Santos, 22% draw, 44% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.94, 4.55 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Santos 1.72, Mirassol 1.97.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Santos
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Botafogo16 July 2026
- W3-1Vitoria30 May 2026
- L2-3away to Gremio23 May 2026
- L0-3Coritiba17 May 2026
Mirassol
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Paranaense30 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 22 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa7 goals2 assists
Mirassol
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santos carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.78 for Mirassol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Santos L-L-W-L-D; Mirassol L-W-D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Santos and 1.97 for Mirassol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos rate 0.96 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mirassol rate 0.81 and 0.95.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mirassol the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Santos against 1.97 for Mirassol. Santos's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/0.95 for Mirassol.