23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC

Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result

Arena Condá, Chapecó
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Chapecoense 1-0 Sao Paulo.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Chapecoense, 26% draw, 38% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sao Paulo at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chapecoense96%Draw4%Sao Paulo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bruno Pachecoassist: Giovanni Augusto
26'
31'
🔁Jonathan Calleriout: G. Santana
46'
🔁Danielzinhoout: Marcos Antonio
🔁D. Borreroout: Mauricio Garcez
58'
Marcinho
62'
🔁Heitorout: Everton
65'
65'
🔁Lucas Ramonout: Newton
66'
🔁Pablo Maiaout: Ferreira
Anderson
71'
Yago Felipe
73'
🔁Yago Felipeout: Fernando
74'
🔁Giovanni Augustoout: Bruno Matias
74'
🔁Tulioout: F. Rossi
74'
76'
🔁Caulyout: Pedro Ferreira
Camilo
88'

Match stats — Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo

23%Possession77%
13Shots22
4On target5
7Corners3
0.64xG1.81

Goals against chances

Chapecoense1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sao Paulo0 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chapecoense 4-4-2
  • 98AndersonG
  • 5HeitorD
  • 21KauanD
  • 3Eduardo DomaD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 77D. BorreroM
  • 27Camilo ReijersM
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 7MarcinhoM
  • 9TulioF
  • 10Giovanni AugustoF
Substitutes
  • 30Matheus AurelioG
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 12FernandoD
  • 26EvertonD
  • 70Rubens RicoldiM
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 80M. CarvalhoM
  • 19David AntunesM
  • 97EnioM
Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 22D. DuarteD
  • 35SabinoD
  • 12Iago BorduchiD
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 37ArturM
  • 10LucianoM
  • 80CaulyM
  • 9Jonathan CalleriF
Substitutes
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 20ButaD
  • 54Luis OsorioD
  • 18WendellD
  • 8Marcos AntonioM
  • 28NewtonM
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 48DjhordneyM
  • 11FerreiraF
Coach: Junior Dorival

Form going into Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo

Chapecoense

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Coritiba8 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
  • L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
  • L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026

Sao Paulo

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
  • L1-2Santos29 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
  • L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Chapecoense did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
  • Sao Paulo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3349203368-3521
10Sao Paulo34128143939044

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo

  • 12 March 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 3 October 2021Chapecoense 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 16 June 2021Sao Paulo 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 3 November 2019Chapecoense 0–3 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 22 July 2019Sao Paulo 4–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 2 December 2018Chapecoense 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A

The full Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo record →

Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Sao Paulo

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chapecoense beat Sao Paulo 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sao Paulo at 38% and given a win for Chapecoense 36%. The goal: Bruno Pacheco 26' for Chapecoense. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.81.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.