Arminia Bielefeld
vs
1. FC Heidenheim
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 1. FC Heidenheim
The model makes it 32% Arminia Bielefeld, 28% draw, 40% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 1.28, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.59.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Arminia Bielefeld wins, grey are draws, red are 1. FC Heidenheim wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Arminia Bielefeld
- L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026
1. FC Heidenheim
- W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026
- W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
- W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026
- W4-3VfL Osnabrück8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
- 26 February 2023Arminia Bielefeld 0–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 21 August 2022FC Heidenheim 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 28 June 2020Arminia Bielefeld 3–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 14 December 2019FC Heidenheim 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 22 December 2018Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 5 August 2018FC Heidenheim 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim
Arminia Bielefeld
- J. Grodowski4 goals
1. FC Heidenheim
- J. Schöppner3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arminia Bielefeld carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.78 for 1. FC Heidenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.59 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arminia Bielefeld rate 0.73 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Heidenheim rate 0.94 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.59 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Arminia Bielefeld's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.08 for 1. FC Heidenheim.