Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Arminia Bielefeld, 28% draw, 41% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Line-ups
- 1J. KerskenG
- 7H. KoudossouD
- 5M. BauerD
- 19M. GroßerD
- 29T. HandwerkerD
- 14M. MomuluhM
- 21S. RussoM
- 38M. WörlM
- 11J. GrodowskiM
- 10J. RocheltF
- 9D. MinF
- 30I. YoungF
- 42T. WegenerM
- 17A. SickerD
- 18L. OppermannG
- 6M. MehlemM
- 31L. JensenM
- 2F. HagmannD
- 3J. FelixD
- 27Benjamin Bediako BoakyeF
- 33T. DähneG
- 2M. BuschD
- 6P. MainkaD
- 19J. FöhrenbachD
- 27M. HeuleD
- 8P. HennrichM
- 3J. SchöppnerM
- 16J. NiehuesM
- 10C. ContehM
- 18A. VogtF
- 11B. ZivzivadzeF
- 4T. SierslebenD
- 23L. PaqaradaD
- 38Y. WagnerF
- 1Frank FellerG
- 41M. ZrilicM
- 17M. HonsakF
- 29M. KaufmannF
- 20L. KerberM
- 22O. MhamdiD
Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga
- L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
1. FC Heidenheim
2. Bundesliga
- W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
- 26 February 2023Arminia Bielefeld 0–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 21 August 2022FC Heidenheim 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 28 June 2020Arminia Bielefeld 3–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 14 December 2019FC Heidenheim 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 22 December 2018Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski51
1. FC Heidenheim
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Heidenheim at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Joel Grodowski 13' for Arminia Bielefeld, Budu Zivzivadze (penalty) 30' for 1. FC Heidenheim, Paul Hennrich 45+3' for 1. FC Heidenheim, Felix Hagmann 55' for Arminia Bielefeld.
How the call on Arminia Bielefeld v 1. FC Heidenheim has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is 1. FC Heidenheim's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Arminia Bielefeld win31%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- 1. FC Heidenheim win41%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.