20 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

LEAG Energie Stadion, Cottbus
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Energie Cottbus 1-1 FC St. Pauli.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Energie Cottbus, 29% draw, 38% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC St. Pauli at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Energie Cottbus5%Draw92%FC St. Pauli3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Tomoya Ando
21'
Tomoya Ando
29'
🔁Youssoupha Niangout: Lars Ritzka
⚽Justin Butlerassist: Moritz Hannemann
37'
Axel Borgmann
57'
57'
🔁Abdoulie Ceesayout: Martijn Kaars
60'
Arkadiusz Pyrka
🔁Leonardo Bittencourtout: Dominik Pelivan
62'
🔁Lucas Copadoout: Christian Kinsombi
62'
74'
🔁Joel Chima Fujitaout: Taichi Hara
75'
🔁Mathias Rasmussenout: Ricky-Jade Jones
marcel lotka
77'
77'
David Nemeth
🔁Tolcay Cigerciout: Dmytro Bogdanov
79'
🔁Lukas Michelbrinkout: fousseny doumbia
79'
80'
⚽Martijn Kaarsassist: Ricky-Jade Jones

Match stats — Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli

69%Possession31%
14Shots7
5On target2
9Corners3

Line-ups

Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LotkaG
  • 3H. RorigD
  • 2K. ManuD
  • 21Luca ErleinD
  • 20A. BorgmannD
  • 32L. BittencourtM
  • 8Lukas MichelbrinkM
  • 10T. CiğerciM
  • 9L. CopadoM
  • 11M. HannemannM
  • 31J. ButlerF
Substitutes
  • 13Dmytro BohdanovF
  • 4T. CampulkaD
  • 23Fousseny DoumbiaD
  • 6J. HofmannM
  • 7C. KinsombiM
  • 16R. MaloneD
  • 5D. PelivanM
  • 29K. KratzschG
  • 19J. BoziarisM
Coach: C. Wollitz
FC St. Pauli 4-1-3-2
  • 1B. VollG
  • 11A. PyrkaD
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 15T. AndoD
  • 23L. OppieD
  • 8E. SmithM
  • 7Y. NiangM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 9Abdoulie CeesayF
  • 24C. MetcalfeF
Substitutes
  • 26R. JonesF
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 22Samuel KleinM
  • 6M. MathisenD
  • 33D. MitovG
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 18T. HaraF
  • 25A. DźwigałaD
  • 14E. AhlstrandM
Coach: M. Rapp

Form going into Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli

Energie Cottbus

2. Bundesliga

  • W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026

FC St. Pauli

2. Bundesliga

  • W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Energie Cottbus92431718-110
7FC St. Pauli9261119+212

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli

  • 17 April 2014Energie Cottbus 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 11 November 2013FC St. Pauli 3–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
  • 3 February 2013FC St. Pauli 0–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
  • 25 August 2012Energie Cottbus 2–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 25 March 2012FC St. Pauli 0–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and FC St. Pauli

Energie Cottbus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Butler51
  • T. Ciğerci42

FC St. Pauli

GoalsAssists

  • Abdoulie Ceesay40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Energie Cottbus and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC St. Pauli at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Justin Butler 37' for Energie Cottbus, Martijn Kaars 80' for FC St. Pauli. Sent off: Tomoya Ando (FC St. Pauli) 21'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.