Energie Cottbus
vs
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Energie Cottbus 1–2 FC St. Pauli
The model makes it 34% Energie Cottbus, 28% draw, 38% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.40, FC St. Pauli 1.54.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Energie Cottbus wins, grey are draws, red are FC St. Pauli wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli
Energie Cottbus
- W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026
- W3-1Hannover 969 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
- W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli
- 17 April 2014Energie Cottbus 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 11 November 2013FC St. Pauli 3–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 3 February 2013FC St. Pauli 0–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 25 August 2012Energie Cottbus 2–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 25 March 2012FC St. Pauli 0–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 1 October 2011Energie Cottbus 1–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and FC St. Pauli
Energie Cottbus
- T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assists
- J. Butler2 goals1 assists
FC St. Pauli
- T. Hara2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Energie Cottbus carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.71 for FC St. Pauli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.54 for FC St. Pauli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Energie Cottbus rate 0.76 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Pauli rate 0.86 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Energie Cottbus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Pauli the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Energie Cottbus against 1.54 for FC St. Pauli. Energie Cottbus's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.13 for FC St. Pauli.