Regular Season - 6 · 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia Serie B prediction

Stadio Comunale, Chiavari

Our model says: Virtus Entella 1–0 Juve Stabia

The model makes it 39% Virtus Entella, 31% draw, 30% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.25, Juve Stabia 0.97.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published

Live win probability

From kick-off
Virtus Entella39%2.56
Draw31%3.23
Juve Stabia30%3.33

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia

45%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Virtus Entella win Draw Juve Stabia win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Virtus Entella first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 28%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Virtus Entella at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia

Virtus Entella

  • D0-0away to Cremonese19 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Pisa11 September 2026
  • D2-2Vicenza Virtus6 September 2026
  • L1-2Cesena29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Sudtirol22 August 2026

Juve Stabia

  • D1-1Cesena18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Vicenza Virtus12 September 2026
  • L0-3Pisa6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Sampdoria29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Palermo23 August 2026

What these results say

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Virtus Entella512276+15
18Juve Stabia512247-33

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia

  • 24 January 2026Juve Stabia 1–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • 23 August 2025Virtus Entella 1–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 10 July 2020Juve Stabia 1–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • 1 December 2019Virtus Entella 2–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 18 May 2019Juve Stabia 2–2 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Girone A

Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia

Virtus Entella

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Juve Stabia

  • Antonio Di Nardo3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Virtus Entella carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.49 for Juve Stabia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Virtus Entella and 0.97 for Juve Stabia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Virtus Entella rate 0.64 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juve Stabia rate 0.63 and 1.30.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Virtus Entella the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Virtus Entella against 0.97 for Juve Stabia. Virtus Entella's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.3 for Juve Stabia.