Sumqayıt
vs
Qabala
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Sumqayıt 1–0 Qabala
The model makes it 44% Sumqayıt, 29% draw, 27% Qabala — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sumqayıt 1.61, Qabala 1.00.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sumqayıt are 11th on 2 points from 5 games; Qabala are 8th on 4 points from 6 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Sumqayıt have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kapaz.
- Qabala have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Neftchi Baku.
- Last 6 meetings: Sumqayıt 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Sumqayıt 1–0 Qabala.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sumqayıt vs Qabala
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sumqayıt at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sumqayıt vs Qabala
Sumqayıt
- D1-1away to Kapaz20 September 2026
- D1-1Şamaxı FK12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Turan6 September 2026
- L0-1Qarabag31 August 2026
- L1-3Neftchi Baku16 August 2026
Qabala
- L0-3Neftchi Baku18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz12 September 2026
- W2-1Imisli FK4 September 2026
- D0-0Şamaxı FK29 August 2026
- L0-1Safa Baku22 August 2026
What these results say
- Sumqayıt did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sumqayıt | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 8 | Qabala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sumqayıt vs Qabala
- 19 April 2026Sumqayıt 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 20 February 2026Sumqayıt 0–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 7 November 2025Qabala 0–2 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 25 May 2024Sumqayıt 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 23 January 2024Qabala 0–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 29 October 2023Sumqayıt 0–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sumqayıt carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.18 for Qabala. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Sumqayıt and 1.00 for Qabala. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sumqayıt rate 0.58 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qabala rate 0.44 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Qabala, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sumqayıt the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sumqayıt against 1.00 for Qabala. Sumqayıt's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.71 for Qabala.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sumqayıt at home · Qabala away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Sumqayıt 5, Qabala 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sumqayıt
- vs Araz16 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 44%
- at Zira23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- vs Safa Baku31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 47%
- at Imisli FK7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 33%
- vs Sabah FA21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 20%
Qabala
- vs Sabah FA17 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Araz23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 28%
- vs Qarabag31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 21%
- at Zira7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 22%
- at Safa Baku21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.