Vicenza Virtus
vs
Pisa
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Vicenza Virtus 1–2 Pisa
The model makes it 34% Vicenza Virtus, 29% draw, 37% Pisa — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.38, Pisa 1.47.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Vicenza Virtus and Pisa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pisa at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa
Vicenza Virtus
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
- W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026
Pisa
- D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
- L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
- W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026
- L0-1Padova23 August 2026
What these results say
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pisa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pisa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Pisa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa
- 15 February 2022Pisa 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 18 September 2021Vicenza Virtus 1–3 PisaSerie B
- 27 February 2021Pisa 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 31 October 2020Vicenza Virtus 4–4 PisaSerie B
- 12 March 2017Vicenza Virtus 2–1 PisaSerie B
- 15 October 2016Pisa 0–1 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Pisa
Vicenza Virtus
- S. Merkaj2 goals1 assists
Pisa
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vicenza Virtus carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.61 for Pisa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.47 for Pisa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vicenza Virtus rate 0.74 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pisa rate 0.76 and 1.24.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pisa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus against 1.47 for Pisa. Vicenza Virtus's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.24 for Pisa.