10 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza
Referee: Davide Di Marco, Italy
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Vicenza Virtus 0-3 Pisa.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Vicenza Virtus, 27% draw, 38% Pisa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pisa at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vicenza Virtus0%Draw1%Pisa99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Alessandro Pietrelli
8'
19'
⚽Filippo Pittarelloassist: Matteo Tramoni
27'
P. Bianco
🔁Marco Carraroout: Nicola Rauti
45'
48'
⚽Arturo Calabresiassist: Matteo Tramoni
🔁Alessandro Pietrelliout: L. Caferri
54'
🔁Giuseppe Cuomoout: Mattia Valoti
54'
Maxime Leverbe
63'
🔁Filippo Alessioout: Gabriele Moncini
64'
69'
Mehdi Léris
72'
🔁Matteo Tramoniout: Emanuele Rao
72'
🔁Stefano Moreoout: Tommaso Marras
72'
🔁Andrea Primassoout: Rosen Bozhinov
🔁Maxime Leverbeout: Filippo Costa
73'
86'
🔁Simone Zanonout: Francesco Coppola
90+1'
🔁Mehdi Lérisout: Simone Canestrelli
90+2'
⚽Emanuele Raoassist: Tommaso Marras

Match stats — Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa

44%Possession56%
10Shots23
0On target9
6Corners12
0.6xG2.86

Goals against chances

Vicenza Virtus0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Pisa3 from 2.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vicenza Virtus 3-5-2
  • 16R. GagnoG
  • 14G. CuomoD
  • 6M. LeverbeD
  • 27T. SandonD
  • 99A. PietrelliM
  • 26G. PellizzariM
  • 4M. CarraroM
  • 29L. ZontaM
  • 5R. MarchizzaM
  • 33S. MerkajF
  • 24Filippo AlessioF
Substitutes
  • 8A. BellemoM
  • 23N. BrighentiD
  • 11G. MonciniF
  • 32F. CostaD
  • 21T. CorazzaD
  • 9C. MorraF
  • 66A. PapettiD
  • 7N. RautiF
  • 44R. TalaricoM
Coach: F. Gallo
Pisa 3-4-2-1
  • 98A. ConfenteG
  • 33A. CalabresiD
  • 13A. PrimassoD
  • 3S. AngoriD
  • 72S. ZanonM
  • 55G. LeoneM
  • 29O. CorreiaM
  • 7M. LérisM
  • 32S. MoreoM
  • 10M. TramoniM
  • 8F. PittarelloF
Substitutes
  • 44D. DenoonD
  • 11I. FerrahM
  • 14F. LoyolaD
  • 23T. MarrasF
  • 36G. PiccininiM
  • 17E. RaoF
  • 1S. ScuffetG
  • 21İ. VuralM
  • 2R. BozhinovD
Coach: P. Bianco

Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa

Vicenza Virtus

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
  • D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
  • W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026

Pisa

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
  • L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
  • W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026
  • L0-1Padova23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pisa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pisa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Vicenza Virtus112361424-109
8Pisa114432017+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa

  • 15 February 2022Pisa 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 18 September 2021Vicenza Virtus 1–3 PisaSerie B
  • 27 February 2021Pisa 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 31 October 2020Vicenza Virtus 4–4 PisaSerie B
  • 12 March 2017Vicenza Virtus 2–1 PisaSerie B

Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Pisa

Vicenza Virtus

GoalsAssists

  • S. Merkaj31

Pisa

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pittarello41
  • M. Tramoni35
  • T. Marras31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pisa won 3–0 at Vicenza Virtus. The model had made a win for Pisa its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Filippo Pittarello 19' for Pisa, Arturo Calabresi 48' for Pisa, Emanuele Rao 90+2' for Pisa. On expected goals it finished 0.60–2.86.

How the call on Vicenza Virtus v Pisa has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Vicenza Virtus win35%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Pisa win38%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.