10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sudtirol vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Marco Druso, Bolzano
Referee: Niccolo Turrini, Italy
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Sudtirol 0-0 Ascoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sudtirol, 31% draw, 32% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sudtirol at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sudtirol3%Draw94%Ascoli3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Salvatore Molina
37'
🔁Alvin Okoroout: Kenny Meddy Mixtur
45'
Giacomo Stabile
48'
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
60'
🔁Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopesout: Rares Burnete
66'
Rares Burnete
67'
73'
🔁Andrea·Silipoout: Giacomo De Pieri
73'
🔁Matteo Brunoriout: amine chakir
73'
🔁Tommaso Milaneseout: Gennao Acampora
75'
Nicholas Rizzo
🔁Aljosa Vasicout: Lorenzo Anghele
75'
🔁Giacomo Stabileout: Davide Veroli
80'
🔁Fabio Rispoliout: Dhirar Brik
80'
86'
🔁Simone D'Uffiziout: Don Bolsius

Match stats — Sudtirol vs Ascoli

42%Possession58%
16Shots9
4On target2
5Corners5
1.17xG0.7

Goals against chances

Sudtirol0 from 1.17 xGless than the chances were worth
Ascoli0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sudtirol 5-4-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 79S. MolinaD
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 27G. StabileD
  • 24S. DavìD
  • 11Vasco LopesM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 10Fabio RispoliM
  • 14A. VasicM
  • 90A. OkoroF
Substitutes
  • 17L. AnghelèF
  • 25K. MixturF
  • 19M. PelliniD
  • 1Lukas PlonerG
  • 80Elias SchrootM
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 12Rok VadjunecG
  • 3D. VeroliD
  • 40Jannik LeitnerF
Coach: D. Possanzini
Ascoli 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 14A. OliveriD
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 19A. GuiébréD
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 62T. MilaneseM
  • 15S. D'UffiziM
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
Substitutes
  • 77D. BolsiusF
  • 9A. ChakirF
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 35G. GoriF
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 11S. PerciunM
Coach: Francesco Tomei

Form going into Sudtirol vs Ascoli

Sudtirol

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
  • D1-1Modena12 September 2026
  • W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
  • W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026

Ascoli

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
  • W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
  • D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Sudtirol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
  • Ascoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ascoli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Sudtirol113621312+115
3Ascoli11551177+1020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Ascoli

  • 4 February 2024Ascoli 1–2 SudtirolSerie B
  • 2 September 2023Sudtirol 3–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 15 April 2023Ascoli 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 27 November 2022Sudtirol 2–2 AscoliSerie B

Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Ascoli

Sudtirol

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sudtirol and Ascoli drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sudtirol at 37% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.17–0.70.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.