Sudtirol
vs
Ascoli
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sudtirol 1–0 Ascoli
The model makes it 36% Sudtirol, 32% draw, 32% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sudtirol 1.11, Ascoli 1.01.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sudtirol vs Ascoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sudtirol at 36% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sudtirol vs Ascoli
Sudtirol
- W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
- W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026
Ascoli
- W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
- D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
- Ascoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ascoli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sudtirol | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Ascoli
- 4 February 2024Ascoli 1–2 SudtirolSerie B
- 2 September 2023Sudtirol 3–1 AscoliSerie B
- 15 April 2023Ascoli 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 27 November 2022Sudtirol 2–2 AscoliSerie B
Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Ascoli
Sudtirol
- K. Mixtur2 goals
Ascoli
- A. Silipo3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sudtirol carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.64 for Ascoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Sudtirol and 1.01 for Ascoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sudtirol rate 0.65 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ascoli rate 0.74 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sudtirol the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sudtirol against 1.01 for Ascoli. Sudtirol's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.14 for Ascoli.