Arezzo vs Cremonese Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Arezzo 0-0 Cremonese.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Arezzo, 26% draw, 48% Cremonese — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cremonese at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arezzo vs Cremonese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 14A. NunzianteG
- 6A. RenziD
- 13M. GilliD
- 4M. CoppolaroD
- 37S. RighettiD
- 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
- 24L. ChiericoM
- 17A. IoniţăM
- 10E. PattarelloF
- 9A. CerriF
- 16Mattia SalaF
- 5J. IllanesD
- 30A. ArenaF
- 33D. ManciniD
- 11L. MancusoF
- 8S. MawuliM
- 2M. MenaD
- 90A. SeculinG
- 21C. TavernelliF
- 23M. VivianiM
- 1A. FulignatiG
- 6F. BaschirottoD
- 15M. BianchettiD
- 5S. LupertoD
- 3G. PezzellaD
- 2M. ThorsbyM
- 33A. GrassiM
- 18M. CollocoloM
- 71S. EliaM
- 27J. VandeputteM
- 19M. NastiF
- 22F. AgazziG
- 4T. BarbieriD
- 14T. BertiM
- 9M. De LucaF
- 12M. FestaG
- 26Gabriel HerzuahF
- 17A. LickūnasF
- 10Adin LičinaM
- 8Simone Lottici TessadriM
Form going into Arezzo vs Cremonese
Arezzo
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026
Cremonese
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Virtus Entella19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
- W3-1Padova6 September 2026
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arezzo had three goals or more.
- Cremonese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cremonese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
| 9 | Cremonese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Cremonese
- 30 September 2020Cremonese 4–0 ArezzoCoppa Italia
- 26 February 2017Arezzo 0–1 CremoneseSerie C
- 9 October 2016Cremonese 3–2 ArezzoSerie C
Leading scorers: Arezzo and Cremonese
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arezzo and Cremonese drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cremonese at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Giuseppe Pezzella (Cremonese) 59'. On expected goals it finished 1.13–0.14.
How the call on Arezzo v Cremonese has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is Cremonese's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Arezzo win26%▼ −2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Cremonese win48%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.