Arezzo
vs
Cremonese
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Arezzo 1–2 Cremonese
The model makes it 28% Arezzo, 27% draw, 45% Cremonese — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Arezzo 1.21, Cremonese 1.86.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arezzo vs Cremonese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cremonese at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arezzo vs Cremonese
Arezzo
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026
Cremonese
- D0-0Virtus Entella19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
- W3-1Padova6 September 2026
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arezzo had three goals or more.
- Cremonese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cremonese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Arezzo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Cremonese
- 30 September 2020Cremonese 4–0 ArezzoCoppa Italia
- 26 February 2017Arezzo 0–1 CremoneseSerie C
- 9 October 2016Cremonese 3–2 ArezzoSerie C
Leading scorers: Arezzo and Cremonese
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Cremonese
- F. Bonazzoli3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arezzo carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.67 for Cremonese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Arezzo and 1.86 for Cremonese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arezzo rate 0.71 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cremonese rate 0.80 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arezzo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Arezzo against 1.86 for Cremonese. Arezzo's attack/defence rating is 0.71/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.14 for Cremonese.