10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Benevento vs Cesena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento
Referee: Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Benevento 2-0 Cesena.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Benevento, 27% draw, 23% Cesena — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benevento at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benevento97%Draw3%Cesena0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Antonis Siatounisassist: David Okereke
25'
Christian Kouan
44'
45'
🔁Emil Bohinenout: Matteo Guidi
45'
🔁Marco Dalla Vecchiaout: Antonio Fiori
51'
•Dimitri Bisoli
🔁Davide Lamestaout: Christian Dalle Mura
62'
67'
🔁Luca D'Andreaout: Alessandro Debenedetti
68'
🔁Riccardo Paganoout: X. Druiventak
75'
🔁Andrea Ciofiout: Vittorio Magni
🔁David Okerekeout: Luigi Cherubini
79'
🔁Edoardo·Pierozziout: Raffaele Romano
79'
Luigi Cherubini
81'
🔁Mattia Maitaout: Pier Luigi·Simonetti
84'
Raffaele Romano
85'
Stefano Scognamillo
85'
Francesco Salvemini
86'
⚽Luigi Cherubiniassist: Pietro Saio
90+3'

Match stats — Benevento vs Cesena

43%Possession57%
18Shots11
6On target1
5Corners5
1.59xG0.51

Goals against chances

Benevento2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cesena0 from 0.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benevento 4-1-3-2
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 77E. PierozziD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 11D. LamestaM
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 28C. KouanM
  • 9F. SalveminiF
  • 29D. OkerekeF
Substitutes
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 10L. CherubiniF
  • 16Mattia ManniniD
  • 32G. MignaniF
  • 25Raffaele RomanoD
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 21E. SchimmentiM
  • 18P. SimonettiM
  • 38A. TaliaM
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores
Cesena 4-3-3
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 6M. IlićD
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 16L. D'AndreaF
  • 9C. ShpendiF
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaF
Substitutes
  • 91A. DebenedettiF
  • 14X. DruiventakM
  • 80A. FioriF
  • 39N. FontanaG
  • 8M. FrancesconiM
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 18M. GuidiM
  • 34M. LontaniM
  • 23V. MagniD
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti

Form going into Benevento vs Cesena

Benevento

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
  • W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
  • D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
  • L1-2Modena22 August 2026

Cesena

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Juve Stabia18 September 2026
  • D2-2Cremonese12 September 2026
  • D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026
  • D1-1Sampdoria23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Benevento conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Cesena scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Benevento114431511+416
11Cesena113621214-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benevento vs Cesena

  • 25 April 2017Cesena 4–1 BeneventoSerie B
  • 5 December 2016Benevento 2–1 CesenaSerie B

Leading scorers: Benevento and Cesena

Benevento

GoalsAssists

  • A. Siatounis40

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benevento beat Cesena 2–0. The model had made a win for Benevento its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Antonis Siatounis 25' for Benevento, Luigi Cherubini 90+3' for Benevento. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.51.

How the call on Benevento v Cesena has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Benevento's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Benevento win50%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Cesena win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.