Benevento
vs
Cesena
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Benevento 1–0 Cesena
The model makes it 45% Benevento, 29% draw, 26% Cesena — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Benevento 1.63, Cesena 0.94.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Benevento vs Cesena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benevento at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Benevento vs Cesena
Benevento
- W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
- D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
- L1-2Modena22 August 2026
Cesena
- D1-1away to Juve Stabia18 September 2026
- D2-2Cremonese12 September 2026
- D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026
- D1-1Sampdoria23 August 2026
What these results say
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cesena went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cesena scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cesena conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benevento | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Cesena | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Benevento vs Cesena
- 25 April 2017Cesena 4–1 BeneventoSerie B
- 5 December 2016Benevento 2–1 CesenaSerie B
Leading scorers: Benevento and Cesena
Benevento
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Cesena
- C. Shpendi6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Benevento carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.44 for Cesena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Benevento and 0.94 for Cesena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benevento rate 0.71 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cesena rate 0.67 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benevento the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Benevento against 0.94 for Cesena. Benevento's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.53 for Cesena.