Empoli
vs
Palermo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Empoli 0–1 Palermo
The model makes it 30% Empoli, 30% draw, 40% Palermo — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Empoli 1.07, Palermo 1.40.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Empoli vs Palermo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palermo at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Empoli vs Palermo
Empoli
- L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
- W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026
Palermo
- W2-1Padova19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
- W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026
What these results say
- Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Empoli | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Empoli vs Palermo
- 7 February 2026Palermo 3–2 EmpoliSerie B
- 7 December 2025Empoli 1–3 PalermoSerie B
- 2 February 2018Empoli 4–0 PalermoSerie B
- 9 September 2017Palermo 3–3 EmpoliSerie B
- 28 May 2017Palermo 2–1 EmpoliSerie A
- 7 January 2017Empoli 1–0 PalermoSerie A
Leading scorers: Empoli and Palermo
Empoli
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Palermo
- D. Johnsen3 goals4 assists
- D. Vavassori2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Empoli carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.71 for Palermo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Empoli and 1.40 for Palermo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Empoli rate 0.62 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palermo rate 0.87 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palermo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Empoli against 1.4 for Palermo. Empoli's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.15 for Palermo.