Empoli vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Empoli 2-4 Palermo.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Empoli, 29% draw, 42% Palermo — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Palermo at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Empoli vs Palermo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. SeghettiG
- 25M. CurtoD
- 6S. RomagnoliD
- 33C. CauzD
- 15J. CeesayM
- 8L. MagninoM
- 23F. BandinelliM
- 39E. BiondiniM
- 91N. CorradoM
- 77B. PopovF
- 10E. SaporitiF
- 36D. BembnistaD
- 5D. Degli InnocentiM
- 44L. DeliM
- 35M. EganD
- 13E. FilippisG
- 28G. IndragoliD
- 16F. MeznarF
- 1S. PerisanG
- 11S. ShpendiF
- 14M. FortinG
- 84T. CassandroD
- 13M. BaniD
- 32P. CeccaroniD
- 3T. AugelloD
- 8J. SegreM
- 10F. RanocchiaM
- 9D. VavassoriM
- 5A. PalumboM
- 17D. JohnsenM
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 96G. MagnaniD
- 11E. GyasiD
- 6C. GomesM
- 99A. GabrielloniF
- 24N. EstévezM
- 33A. BozzolanD
- 23HernaniM
- 36L. MazzitelliM
- 12M. NespolaG
Form going into Empoli vs Palermo
Empoli
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
- W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026
Palermo
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Padova19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
- W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026
What these results say
- Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 |
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Empoli vs Palermo
- 7 February 2026Palermo 3–2 EmpoliSerie B
- 7 December 2025Empoli 1–3 PalermoSerie B
- 2 February 2018Empoli 4–0 PalermoSerie B
- 9 September 2017Palermo 3–3 EmpoliSerie B
- 28 May 2017Palermo 2–1 EmpoliSerie A
Leading scorers: Empoli and Palermo
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti40
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen75
- D. Vavassori61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palermo won 4–2 at Empoli. The model had made a win for Palermo its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Edoardo Saporiti (penalty) 50' for Empoli, Joel Pohjanpalo 57' for Palermo, Antonio Palumbo 65' for Palermo, Dennis Johnsen 69' for Palermo, Bogdan Popov (penalty) 79' for Empoli, Tommaso Cassandro 88' for Palermo. On expected goals it finished 2.04–4.81.
How the call on Empoli v Palermo has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Palermo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Empoli win29%▼ −1
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Palermo win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.