Virtus Entella
vs
Cesena
Serie B prediction
The model makes it 54% Virtus Entella, 26% draw, 20% Cesena — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.63, Cesena 0.90.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Virtus Entella carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.8 for Cesena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Virtus Entella and 0.90 for Cesena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Virtus Entella rate 0.91 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cesena rate 0.85 and 0.95.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Virtus Entella the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Virtus Entella against 0.9 for Cesena. Virtus Entella's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.95 for Cesena.