29 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Virtus Entella vs Cesena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Comunale, Chiavari
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Virtus Entella 1-2 Cesena.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Virtus Entella, 28% draw, 23% Cesena — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Virtus Entella at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Virtus Entella0%Draw4%Cesena96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽A. Fiori
36'
⚽C. Shpendiassist: X. Druiventak
⚽A. Tiritielloassist: L. Vignali
42'
45+1'
Cristian Shpendi
🔁M. Tirelliout: L. Cuppone
46'
50'
Matteo Guidi
53'
🔁A. Fioriout: G. Frabotta
53'
🔁M. Guidiout: M. Francesconi
🔁L. Vignaliout: L. Benedetti
69'
🔁N. Squizzatoout: Lucas Martello
69'
70'
🔁X. Druiventakout: A. Debenedetti
🔁S. Di Marioout: I. Marconi
84'
🔁A. Franzoniout: G. Corona
84'
Luca Parodi
85'
86'
🔁C. Shpendiout: M. Dalla Vecchia

Match stats — Virtus Entella vs Cesena

59%Possession41%
14Shots7
3On target3
6Corners2
0.67xG0.47

Goals against chances

Virtus Entella1 from 0.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cesena2 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Virtus Entella 3-5-2
  • 22F. Del FrateG
  • 23L. ParodiD
  • 6A. TiritielloD
  • 27M. AlborghettiD
  • 8L. VignaliM
  • 24A. FranzoniM
  • 5N. SquizzatoM
  • 11B. GuiuM
  • 26S. Di MarioM
  • 32F. ForteF
  • 17M. TirelliF
Substitutes
  • 12E. TorrielliG
  • 91S. ColombiG
  • 16R. TuricchiaM
  • 3N. PrevitaliD
  • 15I. MarconiD
  • 39M. MotoleseD
  • 80L. BenedettiM
  • 55Lucas MartelloM
  • 18T. AnnoniM
Coach: Andrea Chiappella
Cesena 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 6M. IlicD
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 14X. DruiventakM
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 18M. GuidiM
  • 80A. FioriM
  • 9C. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 90T. MazziG
  • 48S. GianfantiG
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 2M. NattaD
  • 23V. MagniD
  • 5L. SchironeM
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 8M. FrancesconiM
  • 43F. BertacciniF
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti

Form going into Virtus Entella vs Cesena

Virtus Entella

  • L0-1away to Sudtirol22 August 2026

Cesena

  • D1-1Sampdoria23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Virtus Entella512276+15
10Cesena514076+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Cesena

  • 10 February 2026Virtus Entella 3–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 30 August 2025Cesena 1–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • 1 March 2024Cesena 4–0 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Girone B
  • 16 November 2023Virtus Entella 0–1 CesenaSerie C - Girone B
  • 6 August 2023Cesena 2–2 Virtus EntellaCoppa Italia
  • 14 March 2023Cesena 4–0 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Girone B

Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Cesena

Virtus Entella

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Cesena

  • C. Shpendi6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.