29 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sampdoria, 26% draw, 25% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sampdoria at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sampdoria0%Draw5%Juve Stabia95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Manuel Cicconi
13'
22'
Davide Bettella
🔁S. Espositoout: T. Begic
35'
🔁F. Depaoliout: Y. Verschaeren
45+2'
⚽G. Tutinoassist: Y. Verschaeren
45'
Antoine Makoumbou
49'
49'
Davide Buglio
65'
🔁D. Buglioout: F. Artioli
69'
🔁C. Pierobonout: T. Battistella
69'
🔁L. Candelloneout: A. Di Nardo
70'
🔁K. Piscopoout: S. Fernandes
73'
⚽M. Bellichassist: F. Artioli
81'
🔁N. Karicout: J. Kumi
82'
⚽A. Di Nardoassist: T. Battistella
🔁G. Tutinoout: L. Mezzotero
87'
🔁D. Sinaniout: L. Insigne
87'

Match stats — Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia

45%Possession55%
17Shots17
6On target5
2Corners7
1.42xG0.9

Goals against chances

Sampdoria1 from 1.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Juve Stabia2 from 0.90 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sampdoria 4-3-3
  • 1P. VindahlG
  • 29A. Di PardoD
  • 3S. GartenmannD
  • 2M. VitiD
  • 7M. CicconiD
  • 45A. MakoumbouM
  • 94S. EspositoM
  • 6L. HendersonM
  • 20D. SinaniF
  • 99G. TutinoF
  • 23F. DepaoliF
Substitutes
  • 31S. GhidottiG
  • 12A. KrastevG
  • 25A. FerrariD
  • 4A. RiccioD
  • 14A. BellemoM
  • 28O. AbildgaardM
  • 16Y. VerschaerenM
  • 35L. RodellaM
  • 11T. BegicF
Coach: Bernardo Corradi
Juve Stabia 4-3-3
  • 23P. BoerG
  • 2M. RicciardiD
  • 87D. BettellaD
  • 6M. BellichD
  • 73G. ScuderiD
  • 17N. KaricM
  • 8D. BuglioM
  • 10C. PierobonM
  • 7N. PataneF
  • 27L. CandelloneF
  • 11K. PiscopoF
Substitutes
  • 1A. VukovicG
  • 25T. DouglasD
  • 96T. MaggioniD
  • 92F. GalleaD
  • 19N. PietrangeliD
  • 37F. MaistroM
  • 80F. ArtioliM
  • 5T. BattistellaM
  • 24J. KumiM
Coach: Pietro De Giorgio

Form going into Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia

Sampdoria

  • D1-1away to Cesena23 August 2026

Juve Stabia

  • L0-1away to Palermo23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Sampdoria511359-44
18Juve Stabia512247-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia

  • 4 March 2026Juve Stabia 1–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 24 November 2025Sampdoria 1–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 13 May 2025Juve Stabia 0–0 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 4 October 2024Sampdoria 1–2 Juve StabiaSerie B

Leading scorers: Sampdoria and Juve Stabia

Sampdoria

  • L. Insigne2 goals

Juve Stabia

  • Antonio Di Nardo3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.