29 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Avellino vs Vicenza Virtus Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Avellino 3-0 Vicenza Virtus.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Avellino, 22% draw, 39% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 2.56, 4.55 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Avellino at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Avellino99%Draw1%Vicenza Virtus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Besaggioassist: A. Favilli
11'
⚽R. Russoassist: A. Favilli
16'
30'
Gabriele Moncini
Michele Besaggio
38'
Armando Izzo
45'
46'
🔁A. Pietrelliout: L. Caferri
46'
🔁M. Carraroout: R. Talarico
46'
🔁G. Monciniout: C. Morra
⚽B. Moruzziassist: A. Favilli
46'
57'
🔁M. Leverbeout: N. Rauti
🔁M. Besaggioout: D. Sounas
64'
🔁L. Palmieroout: L. Di Maggio
64'
🔁A. Favilliout: W. Cheddira
64'
Lorenco Šimić
66'
70'
🔁F. Costaout: T. Corazza
🔁R. Russoout: T. Biasci
77'
79'
Nicola Rauti
83'
Loris Zonta
🔁M. Palumboout: G. Faticanti
83'
Giacomo Faticanti
86'

Match stats — Avellino vs Vicenza Virtus

41%Possession59%
10Shots18
8On target3
2Corners7
1.56xG1.33

Goals against chances

Avellino3 from 1.56 xGmore than the chances were worth
Vicenza Virtus0 from 1.33 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 44L. SimicD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 29T. CancellottiM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 6L. PalmieroM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 10R. RussoF
  • 99A. FavilliF
Substitutes
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 3M. SalaD
  • 63A. FontanarosaD
  • 24D. SounasM
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 18T. BerenbruchM
  • 14T. BiasciF
Coach: Alessandro Nesta
Vicenza Virtus 3-5-2
  • 16R. GagnoG
  • 14G. CuomoD
  • 6M. LeverbeD
  • 5R. MarchizzaD
  • 99A. PietrelliM
  • 29L. ZontaM
  • 4M. CarraroM
  • 26G. PellizzariM
  • 32F. CostaM
  • 11G. MonciniF
  • 24F. AlessioF
Substitutes
  • 12S. MassoloG
  • 68E. TantalocchiG
  • 21T. CorazzaD
  • 27T. SandonD
  • 33M. VescoviD
  • 23N. BrighentiD
  • 28L. CaferriD
  • 44R. TalaricoM
  • 9C. MorraF
Coach: Fabio Gallo

Form going into Avellino vs Vicenza Virtus

Avellino

  • L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026

Vicenza Virtus

  • W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Avellino521276+17
16Vicenza Virtus5122710-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Avellino vs Vicenza Virtus

  • 2 June 2024Vicenza Virtus 2–1 AvellinoSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs
  • 28 May 2024Avellino 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs
  • 25 February 2017Avellino 3–1 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 24 September 2016Vicenza Virtus 0–0 AvellinoSerie B

Leading scorers: Avellino and Vicenza Virtus

Avellino

  • R. Russo3 goals1 assist
  • M. Besaggio2 goals

Vicenza Virtus

  • S. Merkaj2 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.