Avellino
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B prediction
The model makes it 49% Avellino, 21% draw, 30% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 2.04, 4.76 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Avellino 2.24, Vicenza Virtus 1.77.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Avellino carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.98 for Vicenza Virtus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Avellino and 1.77 for Vicenza Virtus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avellino rate 1.05 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vicenza Virtus rate 1.39 and 1.13.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avellino the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Avellino against 1.77 for Vicenza Virtus. Avellino's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.39/1.13 for Vicenza Virtus.