29 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Padova vs Hellas Verona Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Padova 1-1 Hellas Verona.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Padova, 24% draw, 50% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hellas Verona at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Pietro Fusi
18'
Christian Pastina
24'
⚽A. Edmundsson (OG)
25'
27'
Tobias Slotsager
46'
🔁T. Slotsagerout: S. Korac
🔁P. Fusiout: G. Giunti
59'
🔁G. Caprariout: K. Lasagna
59'
65'
🔁A. Harrouiout: D. Livramento
67'
⚽A. Sarr (pen)
🔁L. Moroout: M. Bortolussi
70'
🔁M. Cocchiout: A. Capelli
70'
Giovanni Giunti
75'
78'
🔁G. Zappaout: N. Calabrese
78'
🔁M. Compagnonout: G. Kastanos
78'
🔁A. Sarrout: S. Cerbone
🔁M. Pompettiout: F. Di Mariano
83'
Alessandro Capelli
90'

Match stats — Padova vs Hellas Verona

39%Possession61%
7Shots14
2On target3
2Corners6
0.94xG1.62

Goals against chances

Padova1 from 0.94 xGabout what the chances were worth
Hellas Verona1 from 1.62 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Padova 3-5-2
  • 22A. SorrentinoG
  • 27A. DellavalleD
  • 5M. LovatoD
  • 58C. PastinaD
  • 24L. CarissoniM
  • 14M. PompettiM
  • 21E. ZuelliM
  • 8P. FusiM
  • 34M. CocchiM
  • 9L. MoroF
  • 10G. CaprariF
Substitutes
  • 1L. MouquetG
  • 32F. SgarbiD
  • 18E. SillettiD
  • 72C. FaedoD
  • 6G. GiuntiM
  • 7K. VarasM
  • 74D. MarcoliniM
  • 23F. Di MarianoM
  • 15K. LasagnaF
Coach: Roberto Breda
Hellas Verona 3-5-2
  • 1N. LealiG
  • 28T. SlotsagerD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 6D. BradaricD
  • 4G. ZappaM
  • 17A. Le BorgneM
  • 24A. BernedeM
  • 21A. HarrouiM
  • 9A. SarrM
  • 11M. CompagnonF
  • 19S. MulattieriF
Substitutes
  • 34S. PerilliG
  • 22G. TonioloG
  • 71D. De BattistiD
  • 48S. KoracD
  • 37N. CalabreseD
  • 23N. LellaM
  • 70F. ChamD
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 79K. SezonienkoF
Coach: Marco Baroni

Form going into Padova vs Hellas Verona

Padova

  • W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026

Hellas Verona

  • L1-2Ascoli23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Padova521256-17
8Hellas Verona5212107+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Padova vs Hellas Verona

  • 20 January 2019Padova 3–0 Hellas VeronaSerie B
  • 26 August 2018Hellas Verona 1–1 PadovaSerie B

Leading scorers: Padova and Hellas Verona

Padova

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Hellas Verona

  • S. Mulattieri2 goals1 assist
  • S. Cerbone2 goals
  • D. Mosquera2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.