29 August 2026, 16:05 UTC

Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result

Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Ar Rass
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Al Kholood 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Al Kholood, 29% draw, 31% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al Kholood at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Kholood96%Draw4%Al-Ahli Jeddah0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
•Ivan Toney
⚽I. Kortajarenaassist: C. da Costa
32'
Hamed Al-Shanqity
35'
43'
Ivan Toney
46'
🔁R. Hamidouout: M. Abdulrahman
64'
🔁F. Al Buraikanout: S. Abu Al Shamat
65'
🔁S. Balobaidout: Z. Al Hawsawi
66'
⚽I. Toneyassist: E. Spertsyan
🔁I. Kortajarenaout: A. Al Dawsari
73'
Mansour Camara
76'
🔁A. Al Aliwaout: M. Sawan
78'
⚽J. Dominguesassist: R. Solan
85'
87'
🔁A. Bondarenkoout: A. Radif
🔁J. Dominguesout: S. Al Shehri
90+2'
⚽M. Sawanassist: C. da Costa
90'

Match stats — Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

31%Possession69%
4Shots16
3On target3
1Corners4
1.15xG2.28

Goals against chances

Al Kholood3 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Ahli Jeddah1 from 2.28 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Kholood 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. M. Yousef H.G
  • 15R. SolanD
  • 5E. UtkusD
  • 25M. CamaraD
  • 38S. PinasD
  • 8S. CisseM
  • 6J. BuckleyM
  • 46A. Al Aliwa
  • 10I. KortajarenaM
  • 11C. da CostaM
  • 22J. DominguesF
Substitutes
  • 48M. Al YahyaG
  • 7S. Al ShehriD
  • 24O. Abdulghani
  • 39A. Al DawsariM
  • 52R. JamanM
  • 70M. SawanM
  • 27A. Al AjianF
  • 41I. BarabaaM
Coach: Des Buckingham
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-3-3
  • 16E. MendyG
  • 46R. HamidouD
  • 28M. DemiralD
  • 3IbanezD
  • 31S. BalobaidD
  • 19A. BondarenkoM
  • 6V. AtanganaM
  • 8E. SpertsyanM
  • 7TrincaoF
  • 17I. ToneyF
  • 9F. Al BuraikanF
Substitutes
  • 1A. Al SanbiG
  • 5M. SulaimanD
  • 2Z. Al HawsawiD
  • 30Z. Al JohaniM
  • 66N. MasoudM
  • 47S. Abu Al ShamatF
  • 11M. Al MutairiM
  • 29M. AbdulrahmanD
  • 21A. RadifF
Coach: Marino Pusic

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al Kholood113351726-912
5Al-Ahli Jeddah107032713+1421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al Kholood

GoalsAssists

  • J. Domingues63
  • Iker Kortajarena41

Al-Ahli Jeddah

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toney132
  • Trincão63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.