29 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Ascoli vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Carrarese.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Ascoli, 26% draw, 25% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ascoli at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ascoli5%Draw92%Carrarese3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Simone D'Uffizi
26'
33'
Fabio Abiuso
47'
Fabio Ruggeri
51'
⚽F. Abiusoassist: J. Rouhi
Giovanni Corradini
53'
🔁T. Milaneseout: A. Oliveri
58'
🔁S. Perciunout: D. Bolsius
58'
63'
🔁N. Belloniout: T. Guercio
63'
🔁M. Cisseout: G. Marconi
68'
Nicolas Schiavi
🔁M. A. Chakirout: G. Gori
69'
🔁A. Silipoout: G. De Pieri
70'
71'
🔁F. Realeout: J. Martini
79'
🔁G. Parlantiout: L. Topalovic
79'
🔁F. Abiusoout: M. Finotto
Gabriele Gori
82'
⚽G. Goriassist: G. De Pieri
82'
🔁S. D'Uffiziout: M. Brunori
83'
Abdoul Guiebre
85'

Match stats — Ascoli vs Carrarese

71%Possession29%
20Shots18
6On target4
10Corners9
1.7xG1.81

Goals against chances

Ascoli1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Carrarese1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ascoli 3-5-2
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 62T. MilaneseD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 11S. PerciunM
  • 19A. GuiebreM
  • 9M. A. ChakirF
  • 15S. D'UffiziF
Substitutes
  • 45G. M. CrespiG
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 27M. RicciM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 14A. OliveriM
  • 99M. BrunoriF
Coach: Francesco Tomei
Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 41L. RomaniD
  • 7N. BelloniM
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 18N. SchiaviM
  • 33F. RealeM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 11M. CisseF
  • 9F. AbiusoF
Substitutes
  • 19V. FiorilloG
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 78T. GuercioD
  • 20G. EstevesD
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 17L. TopalovicM
  • 8Y. KhafiM
  • 66P. PinelliM
  • 72F. MelegoniM
Coach: Gabriele Cioffi

Form going into Ascoli vs Carrarese

Ascoli

  • W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026

Carrarese

  • L1-2Mantova22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Ascoli531174+310
20Carrarese501426-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Carrarese

Ascoli

  • A. Silipo3 goals

Carrarese

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.