Villarreal
vs
Real Betis
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Villarreal 1-2 Real Betis.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Villarreal, 28% draw, 31% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Villarreal 1.69, Real Betis 1.33.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Villarreal vs Real Betis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Villarreal vs Real Betis
Line-ups
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 19N. PépéM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 11Ilias AkhomachF
- 2Logan CostaD
- 5A. DiattaM
- 3A. FreemanD
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 16C. MaciaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 5Marc BartraD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 22IscoM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 9C. HernándezF
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 18N. DeossaM
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 23Junior FirpoD
- 16V. GómezD
- 31Manu GonzálezG
- 20G. Lo CelsoM
- 14Iker LosadaF
- 12Ángel OrtizD
Form going into Villarreal vs Real Betis
Villarreal
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Real Betis
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Real Betis
- 17 January 2026Real Betis 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 18 October 2025Villarreal 2–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 13 April 2025Real Betis 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 15 December 2024Villarreal 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 10 March 2024Real Betis 2–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- 13 August 2023Villarreal 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Real Betis
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Real Betis
- Rodrigo Riquelme2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.69 goals for Villarreal and 1.33 for Real Betis; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Gerard Moreno 29' (Villarreal), Cucho Hernández 39' (Real Betis), Natan Bernardo de Souza 43' (Real Betis).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Villarreal against 1.33 for Real Betis. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.97 for Real Betis.