Villarreal vs Real Betis La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Villarreal 1-2 Real Betis.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Villarreal, 29% draw, 31% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Villarreal vs Real Betis
Line-ups
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 19N. PépéM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 11Ilias AkhomachF
- 2Logan CostaD
- 5A. DiattaM
- 3A. FreemanD
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 16C. MaciaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 5Marc BartraD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 22IscoM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 9C. HernándezF
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 18N. DeossaM
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 23Junior FirpoD
- 16V. GómezD
- 31Manu GonzálezG
- 20G. Lo CelsoM
- 14Iker LosadaF
- 12Ángel OrtizD
Form going into Villarreal vs Real Betis
Villarreal
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Real Betis
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Betis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Betis won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Real Betis
- 17 January 2026Real Betis 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 18 October 2025Villarreal 2–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 13 April 2025Real Betis 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 15 December 2024Villarreal 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 10 March 2024Real Betis 2–3 VillarrealLa Liga
The result against the call
Real Betis won 2–1 at Villarreal. The model had leaned towards a win for Villarreal at 40% and given a win for Real Betis 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gerard Moreno 29' for Villarreal, Cucho Hernández 39' for Real Betis, Natan Bernardo de Souza 43' for Real Betis.
How the call on Villarreal v Real Betis has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Villarreal's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Villarreal win40%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Real Betis win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.