Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 0-4 Eibar.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Celta de Vigo II, 29% draw, 32% Eibar — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta de Vigo II at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
Line-ups
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 21Alexis OlmedoD
- 3K. RibesD
- 20A. RodriguezD
- 23G. MillerM
- 29M. SobralM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 18Joel LópezM
- 10O. MarcosF
- 9A. MarinF
- 11Ángel ArcosF
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 17H. CuencaM
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 2P. GavianD
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 6P. MeixusD
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 15A. KibetM
- 32H. LopezM
- 13Jon MikelG
- 2Sergio CuberoD
- 18M. AranaD
- 4Unai ElgezabalD
- 23Anaitz ArbillaD
- 30Aleix GarridoM
- 8Ander MadariagaM
- 7Malcom AduM
- 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
- 10Jon GuruzetaM
- 9Jon BautistaF
- 27Elijah Gift Izobodo JohnF
- 21Iván GilM
- 20Javi MartónF
- 34Oier LlorenteD
- 17PejiñoF
- 22Álvaro RodríguezD
- 36Haritz OrtuzarD
- 28Lucas NuñezM
- 1Luis LópezG
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
Celta de Vigo II
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
- W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026
Eibar
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Granada CF6 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
- W1-0Valladolid23 August 2026
- L1-3Tenerife16 August 2026
What these results say
- Celta de Vigo II scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Eibar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Eibar won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Eibar kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 12 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Eibar
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin61
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
- Jon Guruzeta32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eibar won 4–0 at Celta de Vigo II. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta de Vigo II at 39% and given a win for Eibar 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jon Magunazelaia 9' for Eibar, Malcom Ares 13' for Eibar, jon guruzeta 20' for Eibar, jon guruzeta 43' for Eibar. Sent off: Fredi (Celta de Vigo II) 53'.
How the call on Celta de Vigo II v Eibar has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Celta de Vigo II's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Celta de Vigo II win39%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Eibar win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.