Celta de Vigo II
vs
Eibar
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 0-4 Eibar.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Celta de Vigo II, 29% draw, 33% Eibar — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celta de Vigo II 1.46, Eibar 1.31.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta de Vigo II at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
Celta de Vigo II
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
- W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026
Eibar
- W3-0Granada CF6 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
- W1-0Valladolid23 August 2026
- L1-3Tenerife16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 2 | Eibar | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Eibar
Celta de Vigo II
- B. Somuah2 goals
- A. Marin2 goals
Eibar
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celta de Vigo II carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.56 for Eibar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.31 for Eibar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta de Vigo II rate 0.69 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eibar rate 0.72 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Eibar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta de Vigo II the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II against 1.31 for Eibar. Celta de Vigo II's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.3 for Eibar.