Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Atletico Madrid, 28% draw, 28% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Line-ups
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 6KokeM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 15J. DavidF
- 11A. LookmanF
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 1J. MussoG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 20G. SimeoneF
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 3O. VargasM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 48R. YeboahD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 35U. SantosD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 21Jonathan DubasinM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 18Raul MoroM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 11Kike BarjaF
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 7MoncayolaM
- 15Diego RicoD
- 24CatenaD
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
Osasuna
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
- D0-0Levante24 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 25 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
- 12 May 2026Osasuna 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 18 October 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 15 May 2025Osasuna 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 12 January 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Atletico Madrid 1–4 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena52
- J. David32
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 4–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Madrid its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jonathan David 24' for Atletico Madrid, Lee Kang-In 54' for Atletico Madrid, Robin Le Normand 63' for Atletico Madrid, Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 82' for Atletico Madrid.
How the call on Atletico Madrid v Osasuna has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Atletico Madrid win44%▲ +3
- Draw28%=
- Osasuna win28%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.