Alaves vs Valencia La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Alaves, 29% draw, 25% Valencia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alaves at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Valencia
Line-ups
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 7Angel PérezM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 15L. BoyéF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 17JonnyD
- 24Selu DialloM
- 9M. DíazF
- 3YusiD
- 6GuevaraM
- 29Izei HernándezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 18PepeluD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 7A. DanjumaM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 39R. SatoM
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 19Dani RabaF
- 29Alex PanachD
- 27David OtorbiF
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 10H. ElliottM
- 15A. DiengM
Form going into Alaves vs Valencia
Alaves
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
Valencia
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
- L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo La Coruna30 August 2026
- L0-1Real Betis25 August 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo22 August 2026
What these results say
- Alaves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valencia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Valencia failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Valencia
- 8 March 2026Valencia 3–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 20 October 2025Alaves 0–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 14 May 2025Alaves 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 22 December 2024Valencia 2–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 24 July 2024Valencia 0–1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Alaves and Valencia
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz34
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valencia won 1–0 at Alaves. The model had leaned towards a win for Alaves at 46% and given a win for Valencia 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Luis Rioja 78' for Valencia.
How the call on Alaves v Valencia has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Alaves's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Alaves win46%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Valencia win25%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.