Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rayo Vallecano, 29% draw, 34% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rayo Vallecano at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Line-ups
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 6P. CissM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 37Rayane BelidF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 36G. BouareM
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 21Fran PérezF
- 31M. RomanM
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 5C. RiedelD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 3Q. HartmanM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 24T. DolanF
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 32J. A. LopezD
- 11Pere MillaM
- 14Unai NúñezD
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
Espanyol
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
- W3-0Levante16 August 2026
What these results say
- Espanyol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
- 23 April 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 7 December 2025Espanyol 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 4 April 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–4 EspanyolLa Liga
- 31 August 2024Espanyol 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 21 May 2023Rayo Vallecano 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello71
- Álvaro García32
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rayo Vallecano beat Espanyol 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Rayo Vallecano at 37%. The goals: Álvaro García 3' for Rayo Vallecano, Adrià Pedrosa 26' for Rayo Vallecano, Roberto Fernández Jaén 54' for Espanyol. Sent off: Omar El Hilali (Espanyol) 90+8'.
How the call on Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Rayo Vallecano's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Rayo Vallecano win37%▼ −5
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Espanyol win34%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.