Rayo Vallecano
vs
Espanyol
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Espanyol
The model makes it 37% Rayo Vallecano, 29% draw, 34% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.44, Espanyol 1.30.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Rayo Vallecano wins, grey are draws, red are Espanyol wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rayo Vallecano at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
- W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026
Espanyol
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
- W3-0Levante16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
- 23 April 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 7 December 2025Espanyol 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 4 April 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–4 EspanyolLa Liga
- 31 August 2024Espanyol 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 21 May 2023Rayo Vallecano 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 19 August 2022Espanyol 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello6 goals1 assists
Espanyol
- Roberto Fernández5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rayo Vallecano carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.95 for Espanyol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.30 for Espanyol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rayo Vallecano rate 1.07 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Espanyol rate 1.01 and 0.83.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Espanyol, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rayo Vallecano the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano against 1.3 for Espanyol. Rayo Vallecano's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.83 for Espanyol.