Elche vs Real Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 2-3 Real Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Elche, 30% draw, 40% Real Madrid — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Real Madrid
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 24A. OsorioF
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 6BigasD
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 19G. DianganaF
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 17JosanM
- 18T. LemarM
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 15A. GülerM
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 27Thiago PitarchM
- 13A. LuninG
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 9EndrickF
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
Form going into Elche vs Real Madrid
Elche
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna17 August 2026
Real Madrid
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- W2-1Inter8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
What these results say
- Elche did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Elche conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Elche scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Real Madrid
- 14 March 2026Real Madrid 4–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 23 November 2025Elche 2–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 15 February 2023Real Madrid 4–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 19 October 2022Elche 0–3 Real MadridLa Liga
- 23 January 2022Real Madrid 2–2 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Real Madrid
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé112
- J. Bellingham33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Madrid won 3–2 at Elche. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matías Dituro (own goal) 25' for Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé 33' for Real Madrid, Abiel Alessio Osorio 71' for Elche, Fernando Niño Rodríguez 83' for Elche, Carlos Espí 90+1' for Real Madrid.
How the call on Elche v Real Madrid has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Elche's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Elche win30%▼ −2
- Draw30%=
- Real Madrid win40%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.