Villarreal
vs
Paris Saint Germain
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Villarreal 1–2 Paris Saint Germain
The model makes it 36% Villarreal, 25% draw, 39% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Villarreal 1.65, Paris Saint Germain 1.73.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
A tight game: Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Villarreal's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Paris Saint Germain's from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 686 matches.
Key facts
- Villarreal are 14th on 3 points from 2 games; Paris Saint Germain are top on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Elche.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Strasbourg.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 39% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain
Villarreal
- W3-1Napoli13 October 2026
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
Paris Saint Germain
- W4-2away to Manchester City14 October 2026
- W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain
Villarreal
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- O. Dembélé33
- Ferran Torres30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Villarreal carry a model rating of 7.01 against 7.2 for Paris Saint Germain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Villarreal and 1.73 for Paris Saint Germain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villarreal rate 1.20 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris Saint Germain rate 1.42 and 0.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Villarreal against 1.73 for Paris Saint Germain. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.71 for Paris Saint Germain.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Villarreal at home · Paris Saint Germain away
League matches only, this season — Villarreal in the La Liga, Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Villarreal 9 in the La Liga, Paris Saint Germain 7 in the Ligue 1.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Paris Saint Germain have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Villarreal
- vs Getafe8 Nov · La Ligawin 54%
- at Barcelona22 Nov · La Ligawin 16%
Paris Saint Germain
- vs Estac Troyes7 Nov · Ligue 1win 82%
- at Nice21 Nov · Ligue 1win 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.