Lyngby
vs
Randers FC
DBU Pokalen prediction
Our model says: Lyngby 1–0 Randers FC
The model makes it 43% Lyngby, 28% draw, 29% Randers FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lyngby 1.51, Randers FC 1.12.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Lyngby's rating is built from 11 Danish Superliga matches and Randers FC's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Lyngby are bottom on 8 points from 11 games; Randers FC are 9th on 11 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- Lyngby are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to FC Nordsjaelland.
- Randers FC are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to AC Horsens.
- Last 6 meetings: Randers FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Randers FC 2–0 Lyngby.
Chance to go through
DBU Pokalen Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Lyngby46%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- Randers FC27%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DBU Pokalen predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lyngby vs Randers FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyngby at 43% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lyngby vs Randers FC
Lyngby
- D3-3FC Nordsjaelland18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Brondby11 October 2026
- L0-4Silkeborg18 September 2026
- D1-1Sonderjyske13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Viborg4 September 2026
Randers FC
- D0-0away to AC Horsens16 October 2026
- L0-2Viborg11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Sonderjyske20 September 2026
- L1-2Odense13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Brondby6 September 2026
What these results say
- Lyngby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyngby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyngby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Randers FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lyngby | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyngby vs Randers FC
- 9 August 2026Randers FC 2–0 LyngbySuperliga
- 21 February 2025Lyngby 0–0 Randers FCSuperliga
- 6 October 2024Randers FC 1–1 LyngbySuperliga
- 5 May 2024Lyngby 2–1 Randers FCSuperliga
- 31 March 2024Randers FC 6–2 LyngbySuperliga
- 23 February 2024Randers FC 1–0 LyngbySuperliga
Leading scorers: Lyngby and Randers FC
Lyngby
GoalsAssists
- S. Colyn42
- Í. Þorvaldsson32
Randers FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Themsen31
- E. Mahmoud31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lyngby carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.41 for Randers FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Lyngby and 1.12 for Randers FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyngby rate 0.71 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Randers FC rate 0.53 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyngby the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lyngby against 1.12 for Randers FC. Lyngby's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.31 for Randers FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lyngby at home · Randers FC away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Lyngby 11, Randers FC 11.
Lyngby score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Randers FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lyngby
- at Silkeborg6 Nov · Superligawin 32%
- at Aarhus20 Nov · Superligawin 20%
- vs Viborg29 Nov · Superligawin 27%
- at FC Nordsjaelland6 Dec · Superligawin 20%
Randers FC
- vs FC Nordsjaelland8 Nov · Superligawin 26%
- at Viborg22 Nov · Superligawin 20%
- vs AC Horsens29 Nov · Superligawin 33%
- at Aarhus5 Dec · Superligawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.