Lask Linz
vs
Slovan Bratislava
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Lask Linz 2–1 Slovan Bratislava
The model makes it 48% Lask Linz, 24% draw, 28% Slovan Bratislava — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lask Linz 2.10, Slovan Bratislava 1.47.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Lask Linz's rating is built from 41 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Slovan Bratislava's from 42 Slovak Super Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 686 matches.
Key facts
- Lask Linz are 33rd on 0 points from 2 games; Slovan Bratislava are bottom on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Lask Linz have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Austria Lustenau.
- Slovan Bratislava are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Spartak Trnava.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lask Linz vs Slovan Bratislava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 48% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lask Linz vs Slovan Bratislava
Lask Linz
- L3-6Liverpool14 October 2026
- L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026
Slovan Bratislava
- L0-3VfB Stuttgart14 October 2026
- L1-6away to Paris Saint Germain9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Lask Linz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Slovan Bratislava
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- F. Flecker30
Slovan Bratislava
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lask Linz carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.69 for Slovan Bratislava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Lask Linz and 1.47 for Slovan Bratislava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lask Linz rate 0.94 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovan Bratislava rate 0.84 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Lask Linz against 1.47 for Slovan Bratislava. Lask Linz's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.15 for Slovan Bratislava.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Lask Linz's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Slovan Bratislava's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lask Linz at home · Slovan Bratislava away
League matches only, this season — Lask Linz in the Bundesliga, Slovan Bratislava in the Super Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lask Linz 9 in the Bundesliga, Slovan Bratislava 10 in the Super Liga.
Lask Linz score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Slovan Bratislava have let in 0 there.
Slovan Bratislava score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Lask Linz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Lask Linz
- at Ried7 Nov · Bundesligawin 48%
- vs TSV Hartberg21 Nov · Bundesligawin 62%
Slovan Bratislava
- vs AS Trencin7 Nov · Super Ligawin 74%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.