VfB Stuttgart
vs
Atletico Madrid
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Atletico Madrid
The model makes it 36% VfB Stuttgart, 27% draw, 37% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.77, Atletico Madrid 1.82.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- VfB Stuttgart are 6th on 3 points from 1 game; Atletico Madrid are 26th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Borussia Dortmund.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Real Madrid.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
VfB Stuttgart
- W3-1Viking9 September 2026
Atletico Madrid
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid
VfB Stuttgart
- E. Demirović3 goals
Atletico Madrid
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VfB Stuttgart carry a model rating of 6.95 against 7.13 for Atletico Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.82 for Atletico Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfB Stuttgart rate 1.15 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Madrid rate 1.39 and 0.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfB Stuttgart, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart against 1.82 for Atletico Madrid. VfB Stuttgart's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.39/0.8 for Atletico Madrid.
Season stats
VfB Stuttgart at home · Atletico Madrid away
League matches only, this season — VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, Atletico Madrid in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: VfB Stuttgart 4 in the Bundesliga, Atletico Madrid 7 in the La Liga.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Atletico Madrid have let in 2 there.
Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); VfB Stuttgart have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
VfB Stuttgart
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach23 Oct · Bundesligawin 53%
- at Bayer Leverkusen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 27%
Atletico Madrid
- vs Deportivo La Coruna25 Oct · La Ligawin 54%
- at Levante1 Nov · La Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.