Manchester United
vs
AS Roma
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Manchester United 1–2 AS Roma
The model makes it 31% Manchester United, 25% draw, 44% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Manchester United 1.44, AS Roma 1.80.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Edge to AS Roma: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Manchester United's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and AS Roma's from 45 Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 686 matches.
Key facts
- Manchester United are 13th on 3 points from 2 games; AS Roma are 25th on 1 point from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Manchester United have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Leeds.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Genoa.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 May 2021, ended AS Roma 3–2 Manchester United.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manchester United vs AS Roma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 44% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Manchester United vs AS Roma
Manchester United
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid13 October 2026
- W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026
AS Roma
- L3-4Real Madrid14 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester United vs AS Roma
- 6 May 2021AS Roma 3–2 Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League
- 29 April 2021Manchester United 6–2 AS RomaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Manchester United and AS Roma
Manchester United
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Manchester United carry a model rating of 7.08 against 7.36 for AS Roma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Manchester United and 1.80 for AS Roma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manchester United rate 1.35 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Roma rate 1.51 and 0.55.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Manchester United, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Manchester United against 1.80 for AS Roma. Manchester United's attack/defence rating is 1.35/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.51/0.55 for AS Roma.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Manchester United at home · AS Roma away
League matches only, this season — Manchester United in the Premier League, AS Roma in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Manchester United 7 in the Premier League, AS Roma 7 in the Serie A.
Manchester United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); AS Roma have let in 0 there.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Manchester United have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Manchester United
- vs Aston Villa8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Liverpool22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
AS Roma
- vs Sassuolo7 Nov · Serie Awin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.