Galatasaray
vs
VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Galatasaray 2–1 VfB Stuttgart
The model makes it 49% Galatasaray, 23% draw, 28% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.22, VfB Stuttgart 1.57.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Galatasaray's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and VfB Stuttgart's from 40 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 686 matches.
Key facts
- Galatasaray are 35th on 0 points from 2 games; VfB Stuttgart are 4th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gençlerbirliği S.K..
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Hamburger SV.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galatasaray at 49% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart
Galatasaray
- L1-4Barcelona13 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP9 September 2026
VfB Stuttgart
- W3-0away to Slovan Bratislava14 October 2026
- W3-1Viking9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart
Galatasaray
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Galatasaray carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.95 for VfB Stuttgart. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for Galatasaray and 1.57 for VfB Stuttgart. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Galatasaray rate 1.27 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfB Stuttgart rate 1.10 and 0.90.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfB Stuttgart, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Galatasaray against 1.57 for VfB Stuttgart. Galatasaray's attack/defence rating is 1.27/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/0.9 for VfB Stuttgart.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Galatasaray at home · VfB Stuttgart away
League matches only, this season — Galatasaray in the Süper Lig, VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Galatasaray 8 in the Süper Lig, VfB Stuttgart 6 in the Bundesliga.
Galatasaray score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); VfB Stuttgart have let in 3 there.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Galatasaray have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Galatasaray
- vs Amed7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 53%
- vs Samsunspor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 75%
VfB Stuttgart
- vs Werder Bremen7 Nov · Bundesligawin 54%
- at FC Schalke 0421 Nov · Bundesligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.