Fenerbahçe
vs
Slavia Praha
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Fenerbahçe 2–1 Slavia Praha
The model makes it 38% Fenerbahçe, 26% draw, 36% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 1.99, Slavia Praha 1.92.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Fenerbahçe and Slavia Praha are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Fenerbahçe are 20th on 1 point from 1 game; Slavia Praha are 23rd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to AS Roma.
- Slavia Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Plzen.
- Last 3 meetings: Slavia Praha 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 November 2024, ended Slavia Praha 1–2 Fenerbahçe.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 38% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha
Fenerbahçe
- D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lyon26 August 2026
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
- W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
Slavia Praha
- L2-3Lens10 September 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha
- 28 November 2024Slavia Praha 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League
- 24 February 2022Slavia Praha 3–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa Conference League
- 17 February 2022Fenerbahçe 2–3 Slavia PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Slavia Praha
Fenerbahçe
- Talisca4 goals
- M. Greenwood2 goals2 assists
- A. Brown2 goals
Slavia Praha
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 7.02 against 7.15 for Slavia Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.92 for Slavia Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 1.36 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Praha rate 1.39 and 0.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 1.92 for Slavia Praha. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.36/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.39/0.76 for Slavia Praha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fenerbahçe at home · Slavia Praha away
League matches only, this season — Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig, Slavia Praha in the Czech Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Fenerbahçe 6 in the Süper Lig, Slavia Praha 9 in the Czech Liga.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Slavia Praha have let in 1 there.
Slavia Praha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Fenerbahçe
- at Galatasaray26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Göztepe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 62%
Slavia Praha
- vs Mlada Boleslav24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 58%
- at FK Jablonec31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.