Colo Colo
vs
Deportes La Serena
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Colo Colo 2–1 Deportes La Serena
The model makes it 63% Colo Colo, 20% draw, 17% Deportes La Serena — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Colo Colo 2.67, Deportes La Serena 1.19.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Colo Colo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Colo Colo are top on 61 points from 27 games; Deportes La Serena are 9th on 37 points from 27 games — Primera División.
- Colo Colo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Nublense.
- Deportes La Serena are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Palestino.
- Last 6 meetings: Colo Colo 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Deportes La Serena 2–4 Colo Colo.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Colo Colo vs Deportes La Serena
Has the model earned this number?
Colo Colo at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Colo Colo vs Deportes La Serena
Colo Colo
Primera División
- W2-1away to Nublense8 November 2026
- W6-1Universidad de Concepcion30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Palestino25 October 2026
- L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
- D1-1Concepción13 September 2026
Deportes La Serena
Primera División
- W1-0Palestino7 November 2026
- D0-0away to Huachipato1 November 2026
- W3-1Concepción24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Everton de Vina11 October 2026
- L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026
What these results say
- Colo Colo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colo Colo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Colo Colo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 30 | +29 | 61 |
| 9 | Deportes La Serena | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Colo Colo vs Deportes La Serena
- 30 May 2026Deportes La Serena 2–4 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 19 July 2025Colo Colo 2–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 16 February 2025Deportes La Serena 1–3 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 11 July 2022Colo Colo 3–0 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 13 February 2022Deportes La Serena 1–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 20 October 2021Deportes La Serena 1–4 Colo ColoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Colo Colo and Deportes La Serena
Colo Colo
GoalsAssists
- J. Correa186
- M. Romero81
- L. Hernández74
Deportes La Serena
GoalsAssists
- J. Vargas87
- F. Chamorro73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colo Colo a 100% chance of the title and Deportes La Serena 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colo Colo the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Colo Colo against 1.19 for Deportes La Serena. Colo Colo's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.64 for Deportes La Serena.
How the model reaches 63% for Colo Colo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Colo Colo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Colo Colo's ratings add 9 points and Deportes La Serena's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Both sides at this match's level47%+2
- Colo Colo's ratings56%+9
- Deportes La Serena's ratings63%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Colo Colo at home · Deportes La Serena away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Colo Colo 27, Deportes La Serena 27.
Colo Colo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Deportes La Serena have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Colo Colo
- at Cobresal6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
Deportes La Serena
- vs Audax Italiano6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.