Gimcheon Sangmu FC
vs
Gangwon FC
K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 30% draw, 32% Gangwon FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36, Gangwon FC 1.13.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D0-0away to Pohang Steelers9 September 2026
- D2-2Gwangju FC6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ulsan Hyundai FC29 August 2026
- D0-0Jeonbuk Motors25 August 2026
Gangwon FC
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors9 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Anyang6 September 2026
- D0-0Pohang Steelers30 August 2026
- D2-2Gwangju FC26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 29 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 28 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon4 goals3 assists
- Lee Kun-Hee3 goals1 assists
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal4 goals
- Mo Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.49 for Gangwon FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.13 for Gangwon FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.59 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gangwon FC rate 0.69 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gangwon FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.13 for Gangwon FC. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.42 for Gangwon FC.