Viking
vs
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Viking 2–0 Fredrikstad
The model makes it 57% Viking, 25% draw, 18% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Viking 2.27, Fredrikstad 0.80.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Viking are top on 50 points from 21 games; Fredrikstad are 8th on 28 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- Viking are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Lillestrom.
- Fredrikstad are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Valerenga.
- Last 6 meetings: Viking 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Fredrikstad 1–2 Viking.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Viking vs Fredrikstad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viking at 57% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Viking vs Fredrikstad
Viking
- W3-0Lillestrom20 September 2026
- W8-1Kristiansund BK13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sandefjord4 September 2026
- W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
Fredrikstad
- D1-1away to Valerenga20 September 2026
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
What these results say
- Viking scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Viking conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Viking had three goals or more.
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fredrikstad.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | +34 | 50 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Viking vs Fredrikstad
- 25 April 2026Fredrikstad 1–2 VikingEliteserien
- 23 November 2025Fredrikstad 0–1 VikingEliteserien
- 22 June 2025Viking 3–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 1 March 2025Viking 2–0 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2024Fredrikstad 3–2 VikingEliteserien
- 21 April 2024Viking 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
Leading scorers: Viking and Fredrikstad
Viking
- P. Christiansen11 goals6 assists
- S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Viking carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.55 for Fredrikstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Viking and 0.80 for Fredrikstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viking rate 1.11 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fredrikstad rate 0.60 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viking a 38.7% chance of the title and Fredrikstad 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viking the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Viking against 0.80 for Fredrikstad. Viking's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.14 for Fredrikstad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Viking at home · Fredrikstad away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Viking 21, Fredrikstad 21.
Viking score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Fredrikstad have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Viking
- at Aston Villa21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
- vs Tromso25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 54%
- at Bodo/Glimt30 Oct · Eliteserienwin 30%
Fredrikstad
- at Molde25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 26%
- vs Rosenborg31 Oct · Eliteserienwin 32%
- vs Brann8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Ham-Kam21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.