Kristiansund BK
vs
Aalesund
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Kristiansund BK 1–2 Aalesund
The model makes it 36% Kristiansund BK, 27% draw, 37% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.60, Aalesund 1.65.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Kristiansund BK and Aalesund are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Kristiansund BK are 15th on 19 points from 21 games; Aalesund are 14th on 21 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- Kristiansund BK have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Rosenborg.
- Aalesund have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Molde.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Kristiansund BK 0–3 Aalesund.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aalesund at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
- L1-3Rosenborg19 September 2026
- L1-8away to Viking13 September 2026
- W2-0Tromso6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ham-Kam30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Fredrikstad16 August 2026
Aalesund
- W2-1away to Molde19 September 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
What these results say
- Kristiansund BK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund
- 27 June 2026Kristiansund BK 0–3 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 26 April 2026Aalesund 1–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 30 January 2026Aalesund 1–0 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs
- 23 March 2025Kristiansund BK 2–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 24 March 2024Kristiansund BK 1–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 16 February 2024Aalesund 1–3 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Kristiansund BK and Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
- L. Alvheim10 goals
Aalesund
- M. Christensen8 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kristiansund BK carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.49 for Aalesund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.65 for Aalesund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kristiansund BK rate 0.56 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aalesund rate 0.76 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aalesund the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Kristiansund BK against 1.65 for Aalesund. Kristiansund BK's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.59 for Aalesund.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kristiansund BK at home · Aalesund away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Kristiansund BK 21, Aalesund 21.
Kristiansund BK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Aalesund have let in 10 there.
Aalesund score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Kristiansund BK have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kristiansund BK
- vs KFUM Oslo25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 35%
- at Sarpsborg 08 FF1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 25%
- vs Valerenga7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 36%
- vs Sandefjord22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
Aalesund
- at Sarpsborg 08 FF25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 30%
- vs Sandefjord31 Oct · Eliteserienwin 36%
- at Lillestrom8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- vs Rosenborg22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.