Ulsan Hyundai FC
vs
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Bucheon FC 1995
The model makes it 43% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 28% draw, 29% Bucheon FC 1995 — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.70, Bucheon FC 1995 1.21.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Ulsan Hyundai FC are 2nd on 47 points from 30 games; Bucheon FC 1995 are 11th on 32 points from 30 games — K League 1.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Anyang.
- Bucheon FC 1995 have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
- Last 3 meetings: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- L1-2away to FC Anyang19 September 2026
- W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 August 2026
Bucheon FC 1995
- L0-2Gimcheon Sangmu FC19 September 2026
- D2-2Jeju United FC12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Incheon United8 September 2026
- L0-5Daejeon Citizen5 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bucheon FC 1995 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bucheon FC 1995 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 40 | +5 | 47 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
- 10 May 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 Bucheon FC 1995K League 1
- 15 March 2026Bucheon FC 1995 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 29 June 2022Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–1 Bucheon FC 1995FA Cup
Leading scorers: Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Lee Dong-Gyeong7 goals5 assists
- Yago Cariello7 goals1 assist
Bucheon FC 1995
- Jefferson Galego4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.38 for Bucheon FC 1995. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.21 for Bucheon FC 1995. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.75 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.63 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.21 for Bucheon FC 1995. Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.61 for Bucheon FC 1995.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home · Bucheon FC 1995 away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Ulsan Hyundai FC 30, Bucheon FC 1995 30.
Ulsan Hyundai FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Bucheon FC 1995 have let in 5 there.
Bucheon FC 1995 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Ulsan Hyundai FC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- vs Pohang Steelers24 Oct · K League 1win 41%
Bucheon FC 1995
- vs Gwangju FC24 Oct · K League 1win 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.