Gagra
vs
Dinamo Batumi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Gagra 0–1 Dinamo Batumi
The model makes it 30% Gagra, 29% draw, 41% Dinamo Batumi — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gagra 1.17, Dinamo Batumi 1.57.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Gagra are 8th on 29 points from 27 games; Dinamo Batumi are top on 47 points from 27 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Gagra are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Meshakhte.
- Dinamo Batumi are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Torpedo Kutaisi.
- Last 6 meetings: Gagra 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Dinamo Batumi 2–2 Gagra.
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Batumi at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi
Gagra
- D1-1Meshakhte19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
Dinamo Batumi
- W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dila13 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 19999 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rustavi4 September 2026
- W3-0Spaeri30 August 2026
What these results say
- Gagra failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gagra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gagra had two goals or fewer.
- Dinamo Batumi went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 29 |
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi
- 8 August 2026Dinamo Batumi 2–2 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 6 May 2026Gagra 1–2 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 7 March 2026Dinamo Batumi 1–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 26 October 2025Gagra 4–1 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 17 August 2025Dinamo Batumi 1–2 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 3 May 2025Gagra 1–1 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
The two sides
Gagra carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.27 for Dinamo Batumi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Gagra and 1.57 for Dinamo Batumi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gagra rate 0.40 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Batumi rate 0.61 and 1.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gagra a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Batumi 21.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Batumi the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gagra against 1.57 for Dinamo Batumi. Gagra's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.96 for Dinamo Batumi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gagra at home · Dinamo Batumi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Gagra 27, Dinamo Batumi 27.
Gagra score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Dinamo Batumi have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gagra
- at Spaeri23 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 33%
- vs Rustavi1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 28%
- at FC Iberia 19999 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 24%
- vs Dila21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 28%
Dinamo Batumi
- vs Samgurali24 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 49%
- vs Meshakhte1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 51%
- at Spaeri8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 43%
- vs Rustavi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.