Zorya Luhansk
vs
Chornomorets
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Chornomorets
The model makes it 46% Zorya Luhansk, 29% draw, 25% Chornomorets — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zorya Luhansk 1.63, Chornomorets 0.93.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Zorya Luhansk are 8th on 8 points from 7 games; Chornomorets are 12th on 5 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Zorya Luhansk are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Dynamo Kyiv.
- Chornomorets are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Obolon'-Brovar.
- Last 6 meetings: Zorya Luhansk 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 August 2025, ended Chornomorets 2–1 Zorya Luhansk.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zorya Luhansk at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets
Zorya Luhansk
- L0-2Dynamo Kyiv19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bukovyna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Veres Rivne6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Kharkiv31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Polessya17 August 2026
Chornomorets
- D1-1Obolon'-Brovar18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 September 2026
- D0-0Livyi Bereh4 September 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR30 August 2026
- L0-2away to LNZ Cherkasy16 August 2026
What these results say
- Zorya Luhansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Chornomorets had two goals or fewer.
- Chornomorets failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets
- 23 August 2025Chornomorets 2–1 Zorya LuhanskCup
- 14 December 2024Zorya Luhansk 2–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 10 August 2024Chornomorets 0–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 14 April 2024Zorya Luhansk 1–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 1 November 2023Chornomorets 4–1 Zorya LuhanskCup
- 30 September 2023Chornomorets 0–0 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zorya Luhansk carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.26 for Chornomorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.93 for Chornomorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zorya Luhansk rate 0.66 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chornomorets rate 0.45 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zorya Luhansk the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk against 0.93 for Chornomorets. Zorya Luhansk's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.52 for Chornomorets.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zorya Luhansk at home · Chornomorets away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Zorya Luhansk 7, Chornomorets 6.
Zorya Luhansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Chornomorets have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Zorya Luhansk
- at Shakhtar Donetsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs LNZ Cherkasy7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Karpaty21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
Chornomorets
- vs Karpaty24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Veres Rivne31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Kudrivka7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.