Ham-Kam
vs
Bodo/Glimt
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Ham-Kam 1–2 Bodo/Glimt
The model makes it 20% Ham-Kam, 24% draw, 56% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Ham-Kam 1.05, Bodo/Glimt 2.57.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Ham-Kam are 13th on 23 points from 21 games; Bodo/Glimt are 2nd on 50 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- Ham-Kam have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Tromso.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Brann.
- Last 6 meetings: Bodo/Glimt 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Ham-Kam.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodo/Glimt at 56% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt
Ham-Kam
- L2-3away to Tromso20 September 2026
- L1-5Molde13 September 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg5 September 2026
- D2-2Kristiansund BK30 August 2026
- L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026
Bodo/Glimt
- L1-2away to Brann20 September 2026
- W3-2Sandefjord14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fredrikstad4 September 2026
- W4-2Rosenborg30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Valerenga8 August 2026
What these results say
- Ham-Kam did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ham-Kam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.
- Bodo/Glimt scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bodo/Glimt had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 23 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | +34 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt
- 22 July 2026Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 3 August 2025Ham-Kam 1–3 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 5 April 2025Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 13 September 2024Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 20 May 2024Ham-Kam 1–0 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 3 September 2023Ham-Kam 4–4 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
Leading scorers: Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt
Ham-Kam
- M. Alassane Niang6 goals
Bodo/Glimt
- A. Helmersen11 goals1 assist
- K. Høgh7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Ham-Kam carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.97 for Bodo/Glimt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Ham-Kam and 2.57 for Bodo/Glimt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ham-Kam rate 0.65 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodo/Glimt rate 1.15 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ham-Kam a 0% chance of the title and Bodo/Glimt 61.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ham-Kam against 2.57 for Bodo/Glimt. Ham-Kam's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.9 for Bodo/Glimt.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ham-Kam at home · Bodo/Glimt away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Ham-Kam 21, Bodo/Glimt 21.
Bodo/Glimt score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Ham-Kam have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ham-Kam
- vs Rosenborg24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 28%
- at KFUM Oslo1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- vs Sarpsborg 08 FF8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 36%
- vs Fredrikstad21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 35%
Bodo/Glimt
- at Napoli20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 25%
- vs Valerenga24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 67%
- vs Viking30 Oct · Eliteserienwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.