Zira
vs
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Zira 1–0 Şamaxı FK
The model makes it 44% Zira, 30% draw, 26% Şamaxı FK — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zira 1.55, Şamaxı FK 0.94.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Zira are 5th on 10 points from 6 games; Şamaxı FK are 6th on 9 points from 6 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Zira are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Turan.
- Şamaxı FK are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Araz.
- Last 6 meetings: Zira 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FK.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zira vs Şamaxı FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zira at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zira vs Şamaxı FK
Zira
- L0-1away to Turan19 September 2026
- D1-1Qarabag13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Sabah FA5 September 2026
- W1-0Neftchi Baku30 August 2026
- W3-1Imisli FK22 August 2026
Şamaxı FK
- W2-1Araz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Kapaz4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Qabala29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turan23 August 2026
What these results say
- Zira conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zira | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Şamaxı FK | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zira vs Şamaxı FK
- 7 April 2026Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 13 December 2025Şamaxı FK 2–1 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 19 September 2025Zira 2–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 30 March 2025Zira 3–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 24 January 2025Şamaxı FK 1–2 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 4 December 2024Zira 3–1 Şamaxı FKCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zira carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.34 for Şamaxı FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Zira and 0.94 for Şamaxı FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zira rate 0.63 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Şamaxı FK rate 0.54 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zira a 0.1% chance of the title and Şamaxı FK 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zira the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Zira against 0.94 for Şamaxı FK. Zira's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.51 for Şamaxı FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zira at home · Şamaxı FK away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Zira 6, Şamaxı FK 6.
Zira score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Şamaxı FK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Zira
- at Kapaz18 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 40%
- vs Sumqayıt23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 49%
- at Araz31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 39%
- vs Qabala7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 50%
- at Imisli FK21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 39%
Şamaxı FK
- vs Safa Baku16 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 48%
- at Imisli FK25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 35%
- vs Neftchi Baku31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 28%
- at Sabah FA7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 14%
- vs Turan21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.