Vicenza Virtus
vs
Juve Stabia
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Vicenza Virtus, 28% draw, 30% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.67, Juve Stabia 1.22.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vicenza Virtus at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia
Vicenza Virtus
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
- W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026
Juve Stabia
- L0-3Pisa6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sampdoria29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Palermo23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 | Juve Stabia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia
Vicenza Virtus
- T. Corazza1 goals1 assists
Juve Stabia
- Antonio Di Nardo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vicenza Virtus carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.51 for Juve Stabia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.22 for Juve Stabia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vicenza Virtus rate 0.76 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juve Stabia rate 0.68 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vicenza Virtus the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus against 1.22 for Juve Stabia. Vicenza Virtus's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.35 for Juve Stabia.