Sudtirol
vs
Modena
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Sudtirol, 29% draw, 29% Modena — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sudtirol 1.56, Modena 1.08.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sudtirol vs Modena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sudtirol at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sudtirol vs Modena
Sudtirol
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
- W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026
Modena
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sudtirol | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | Modena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Modena
- 11 April 2026Sudtirol 1–1 ModenaSerie B
- 23 November 2025Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 29 December 2024Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 17 August 2024Sudtirol 2–1 ModenaSerie B
- 27 April 2024Modena 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 26 September 2023Sudtirol 0–0 ModenaSerie B
Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Modena
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Modena
- G. Caso2 goals
- G. Olzer2 goals
- G. Ambrosino1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sudtirol carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.52 for Modena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Sudtirol and 1.08 for Modena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sudtirol rate 0.73 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Modena rate 0.68 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sudtirol the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sudtirol against 1.08 for Modena. Sudtirol's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.31 for Modena.