Sudtirol vs Modena Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sudtirol, 29% draw, 28% Modena — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sudtirol at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sudtirol vs Modena
Line-ups
- 22A. PlizzariG
- 4R. StivanelloD
- 55A. GiorginiD
- 27G. StabileD
- 79S. MolinaM
- 10Fabio RispoliM
- 5S. TronchinM
- 20B. BjarkasonM
- 11Vasco LopesM
- 18Kevin ZeroliM
- 90A. OkoroF
- 9R. BurneteF
- 23F. DaviD
- 46D. BrikM
- 24S. DavìD
- 25K. MixturF
- 19M. PelliniD
- 80Elias SchrootM
- 21F. TaitM
- 12Rok VadjunecG
- 1L. ChichizolaG
- 77D. TonoliD
- 6S. NadorD
- 20B. NielingD
- 7F. ZampanoD
- 8S. SantoroM
- 16G. BrugmanM
- 42A. BiancoM
- 72G. OlzerF
- 70G. AmbrosinoF
- 10G. CasoF
- 29L. BacchinF
- 11A. BelottiF
- 17K. BozhanajM
- 22L. ConsiglioG
- 27Paulo AzziM
- 23F. FolinoD
- 26A. ImputatoF
- 9D. MontevagoF
- 15Martino OderoD
Form going into Sudtirol vs Modena
Sudtirol
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
- W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026
Modena
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sudtirol | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 2 | Modena | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Modena
- 11 April 2026Sudtirol 1–1 ModenaSerie B
- 23 November 2025Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 29 December 2024Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 17 August 2024Sudtirol 2–1 ModenaSerie B
- 27 April 2024Modena 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Modena
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Modena
GoalsAssists
- A. Belotti60
- G. Ambrosino32
- G. Caso32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sudtirol and Modena drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sudtirol at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Alvin Okoro 35' for Sudtirol, Giuseppe Ambrosino 88' for Modena.
How the call on Sudtirol v Modena has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Sudtirol's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sudtirol win43%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Modena win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.