Al Khaleej Saihat
vs
Al-Nassr
Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Nassr.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al Khaleej Saihat, 29% draw, 33% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.44, Al-Nassr 1.23.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Khaleej Saihat at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr
Al Khaleej Saihat
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
- L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026
- L1-5Al-Hilal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Abha25 August 2026
Al-Nassr
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon28 August 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Ettifaq25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 5 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr
Al Khaleej Saihat
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Al-Nassr
- Ângelo3 goals2 assists
- Cristiano Ronaldo3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Khaleej Saihat carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.57 for Al-Nassr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.23 for Al-Nassr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Khaleej Saihat rate 0.65 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Nassr rate 0.77 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al-Nassr, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 0% chance of the title and Al-Nassr 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Khaleej Saihat the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.23 for Al-Nassr. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.36 for Al-Nassr.