Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Nassr.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Al Khaleej Saihat, 30% draw, 37% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49A. MorisG
- 39S. Al HamsalD
- 4K. KouyateD
- 3M. Al KhabraniD
- 5P. RebochoD
- 19M. CrespoM
- 8O. MascarellM
- 12M. KanabahM
- 18N. Al SaadiF
- 11S. Al AmriF
- 10A. FulginiF
- 96M. Al HaidariG
- 27F. Al SaqourD
- 17A. Al HafithD
- 14A. Al ShaafiD
- 29R. Al ShanqitiD
- 16B. M. MunshiM
- 15M. HamziF
- 28H. Al EisaF
- 97F. Al RashidiF
- 24BentoG
- 12N. BoushalD
- 5A. Al AmriD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 6S. Al NasserD
- 20AngeloM
- 11Samu CostaM
- 17A. Al KhaibariM
- 10S. ManeM
- 79Joao FelixF
- 7C. RonaldoF
- 1N. Al AqidiG
- 4N. Al SharariD
- 70A. AmanD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 50M. QasheeshD
- 56R. Al GhamdiM
- 14S. Al NajeiM
- 9A. Al HamdanF
- 60S. HaqawiF
Form going into Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr
Al Khaleej Saihat
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
- L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026
Al-Nassr
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr
Al Khaleej Saihat
GoalsAssists
- J. King50
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Nassr at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: O. Mascarell 45' for Al Khaleej Saihat, A. Al Hamdan 72' for Al-Nassr. On expected goals it finished 0.38–1.08.
How the call on Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Nassr has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 30% / 37%: the biggest move is Al Khaleej Saihat's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Al Khaleej Saihat win33%▼ −2
- Draw30%=
- Al-Nassr win37%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.