Cesena
vs
Cremonese
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Cesena 2-2 Cremonese.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Cesena, 30% draw, 39% Cremonese — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cesena 1.15, Cremonese 1.45.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Cesena vs Cremonese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cremonese at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cesena vs Cremonese
Cesena
- D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026
- D1-1Sampdoria23 August 2026
Cremonese
- W3-1Padova6 September 2026
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cesena | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cesena vs Cremonese
- 22 February 2025Cremonese 1–2 CesenaSerie B
- 26 December 2024Cesena 0–1 CremoneseSerie B
- 18 May 2018Cesena 1–0 CremoneseSerie B
- 28 December 2017Cremonese 1–0 CesenaSerie B
Leading scorers: Cesena and Cremonese
Cesena
- C. Shpendi5 goals
Cremonese
- F. Bonazzoli3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Cesena carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.78 for Cremonese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Cesena and 1.45 for Cremonese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cesena rate 0.71 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cremonese rate 0.86 and 1.00.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cesena, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cesena against 1.45 for Cremonese. Cesena's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1 for Cremonese.