Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Chippa United 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Chippa United, 30% draw, 38% Mamelodi Sundowns — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mamelodi Sundowns at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23S. NwabaliG
- 28B. MadingwaneD
- 35H. MajadiboduD
- 22A. MobaraD
- 31I. JonesD
- 21S. SeabiM
- 20G. MoseleM
- 15A. TshobeniM
- 10A. MatroseF
- 29N. MlotshwaF
- 7J. FiguareidoF
- 18E. SitholeG
- 25S. KammiesD
- 33O. Tshaya
- 5S. NdlovuD
- 44I. BanceM
- 6M. CarrimF
- 40M. KhanyiF
- 8K. MfecaneD
- 49L. SavilleM
- 30R. WilliamsG
- 27T. MorenaD
- 20G. KekanaD
- 3K. NdamaneD
- 23F. BasadienD
- 4T. MokoenaM
- 11M. AllendeM
- 38S. Ndlovu
- 43K. LethlakuM
- 17T. MatthewsM
- 12B. LeonF
- 31R. GossG
- 6A. ModibaD
- 42M. KhozaD
- 21S. MkhuliseM
- 33C. MailulaF
- 18T. ZwaneM
- 10N. SantosM
- 13I. RaynersF
- 29A. van WykF
Form going into Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Chippa United
Premier Soccer League
- D0-0Milford FC5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Siwelele25 August 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns
Premier Soccer League
- W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
- W2-0Milford FC2 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Chippa United and Mamelodi Sundowns
Chippa United
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- T. Matthews34
- B. León31
- I. Rayners30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chippa United and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mamelodi Sundowns at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Kammies 78' for Chippa United, A. van Wyk 90' for Mamelodi Sundowns. On expected goals it finished 0.49–1.49.
How the call on Chippa United v Mamelodi Sundowns has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Mamelodi Sundowns's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Chippa United win32%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Mamelodi Sundowns win38%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.