Padova vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Padova 1-0 Ascoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Padova, 29% draw, 32% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Padova at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Padova vs Ascoli
Line-ups
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 27Alessandro DellavalleD
- 5M. LovatoD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 24L. CarissoniM
- 14M. PompettiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 7K. VarasM
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 15K. LasagnaF
- 9L. MoroF
- 25N. GalazziM
- 8P. FusiM
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 1L. MouquetG
- 11A. SeghettiF
- 32F. SgarbiD
- 18E. SillettiD
- 20M. BortolussiF
- 17A. CapelliM
- 1S. VitaleG
- 62T. MilaneseD
- 30M. CuradoD
- 33N. RizzoD
- 19A. GuiébréD
- 8G. CorradiniM
- 4S. DamianiM
- 21G. De PieriM
- 77D. BolsiusM
- 15S. D'UffiziM
- 9A. ChakirF
- 99Matteo BrunoriF
- 45G. CrespiG
- 17F. DiamantiD
- 32F. GattoniD
- 35G. GoriF
- 18L. Lo ScalzoM
- 3M. NicolettiD
- 14A. OliveriM
- 11S. PerciunM
Form going into Padova vs Ascoli
Padova
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026
Ascoli
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
- D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Padova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 3 | Ascoli | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Padova vs Ascoli
- 2 April 2019Padova 1–2 AscoliSerie B
- 10 November 2018Ascoli 2–3 PadovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Padova and Ascoli
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo41
- G. Gori32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Padova beat Ascoli 1–0. The model had made a win for Padova its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Nicolas Galazzi 63' for Padova.
How the call on Padova v Ascoli has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Padova's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Padova win39%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Ascoli win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.