Amarante
vs
FC Porto B
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Amarante 1–2 FC Porto B
The model makes it 36% Amarante, 26% draw, 38% FC Porto B — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Amarante 1.52, FC Porto B 1.55.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Amarante and FC Porto B are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Amarante are 16th on 5 points from 7 games; FC Porto B are 13th on 7 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Amarante are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Portimonense.
- FC Porto B have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Leixoes.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Amarante vs FC Porto B
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto B at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Amarante vs FC Porto B
Amarante
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026
- W1-0Benfica B30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vizela22 August 2026
FC Porto B
- W2-1away to Leixoes10 October 2026
- D2-2Vizela14 September 2026
- L0-3away to Tondela5 September 2026
- L0-3Penafiel30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Feirense24 August 2026
What these results say
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amarante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto B conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Porto B had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Amarante
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
FC Porto B
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Amarante carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.44 for FC Porto B. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Amarante and 1.55 for FC Porto B. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Amarante rate 0.55 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Porto B rate 0.74 and 1.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amarante a 0% chance of the title and FC Porto B 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto B the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Amarante against 1.55 for FC Porto B. Amarante's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.7 for FC Porto B.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Amarante at home · FC Porto B away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Amarante 7, FC Porto B 7.
Amarante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); FC Porto B have let in 4 there.
FC Porto B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Amarante have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Amarante
- at Academica7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Felgueiras 193215 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Sporting CP B30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 20%
- vs AVS6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 28%
FC Porto B
- vs Portimonense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 50%
- vs Torreense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- at Felgueiras 193229 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Academica6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.