Benfica B
vs
Chaves
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Benfica B 2–0 Chaves
The model makes it 63% Benfica B, 21% draw, 16% Chaves — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Benfica B 2.35, Chaves 0.96.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Benfica B: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Benfica B are 5th on 13 points from 7 games; Chaves are 17th on 5 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Benfica B have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Felgueiras 1932.
- Chaves have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lusitânia Lourosa.
- Last 6 meetings: Benfica B 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Benfica B 1–0 Chaves.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Benfica B vs Chaves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica B at 63% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Benfica B vs Chaves
Benfica B
- W1-0Felgueiras 193212 October 2026
- W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026
- L0-2Torreense5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Amarante30 August 2026
- D1-1Portimonense21 August 2026
Chaves
- D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026
- W1-0Feirense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Felgueiras 193230 August 2026
- D2-2AVS23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica B had two goals or fewer.
- Chaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Benfica B
Chance to finish in the top four · 50% today
Chaves
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Benfica B vs Chaves
- 17 January 2026Benfica B 1–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 10 August 2025Chaves 1–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 28 February 2025Chaves 1–2 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 6 October 2024Benfica B 1–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 25 February 2022Chaves 1–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 3 October 2021Benfica B 3–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
The two sides
Benfica B carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.27 for Chaves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Benfica B and 0.96 for Chaves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica B rate 0.73 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chaves rate 0.62 and 1.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Benfica B a 15% chance of the title and Chaves 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica B the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Benfica B against 0.96 for Chaves. Benfica B's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.98 for Chaves.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benfica B at home · Chaves away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Benfica B 7, Chaves 7.
Benfica B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Chaves have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Benfica B
- at Farense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs AVS15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Penafiel29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 50%
Chaves
- vs Penafiel7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- at Leixoes15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Tondela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 28%
- at União de Leiria6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.