1. FC Kaiserslautern
vs
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 Hertha BSC
The model makes it 38% 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 29% draw, 33% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.27, Hertha BSC 1.16.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 4th on 15 points from 8 games; Hertha BSC are top on 22 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to VfL Bochum.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Holstein Kiel.
- Last 6 meetings: Hertha BSC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- W2-0VfL Bochum17 October 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026
- W1-0Eintracht Braunschweig19 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg12 September 2026
- W3-0SV Darmstadt 985 September 2026
Hertha BSC
- D0-0away to Holstein Kiel16 October 2026
- W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden19 September 2026
- W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today
Hertha BSC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 34% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC
- 11 April 2026Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 2 December 2025Hertha BSC 6–1 1. FC KaiserslauternDFB Pokal
- 8 November 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 0–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 8 February 2025Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 31 August 20241. FC Kaiserslautern 3–4 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 11 May 2024Hertha Berlin 3–1 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC
1. FC Kaiserslautern
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo45
- J. Þorsteinsson31
- O. Adewumi30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Kaiserslautern carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.64 for Hertha BSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.16 for Hertha BSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.59 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hertha BSC rate 0.82 and 1.25.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hertha BSC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 4.2% chance of the title and Hertha BSC 34.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.16 for Hertha BSC. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.25 for Hertha BSC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Kaiserslautern at home · Hertha BSC away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 8, Hertha BSC 8.
1. FC Kaiserslautern score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Hertha BSC have let in 0 there.
Hertha BSC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Kaiserslautern have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- at VfL Osnabrück7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- vs Dynamo Dresden22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- at Holstein Kiel28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
Hertha BSC
- vs VfL Wolfsburg7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
- at Energie Cottbus22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- vs Karlsruher SC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 62%
- at Hannover 966 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.