Energie Cottbus
vs
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Energie Cottbus 2–1 VfL Bochum
The model makes it 44% Energie Cottbus, 25% draw, 31% VfL Bochum — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.79, VfL Bochum 1.41.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Energie Cottbus are 8th on 8 points from 7 games; VfL Bochum are 12th on 7 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Energie Cottbus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to SV Darmstadt 98.
- VfL Bochum are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld.
- Last 6 meetings: VfL Bochum 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2014, ended VfL Bochum 2–1 Energie Cottbus.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Energie Cottbus at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
- L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026
- D1-1FC St. Pauli20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
VfL Bochum
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
What these results say
- Energie Cottbus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Bochum | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum
- 13 April 2014VfL Bochum 2–1 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 1 November 2013Energie Cottbus 0–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 14 April 2013Energie Cottbus 0–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 4 November 2012VfL Bochum 2–2 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 20 April 2012Energie Cottbus 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 21 November 2011VfL Bochum 0–1 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
GoalsAssists
- J. Butler41
- T. Ciğerci41
VfL Bochum
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Energie Cottbus carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.48 for VfL Bochum. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.41 for VfL Bochum. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Energie Cottbus rate 0.85 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Bochum rate 0.56 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Energie Cottbus a 0.6% chance of the title and VfL Bochum 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Energie Cottbus the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Energie Cottbus against 1.41 for VfL Bochum. Energie Cottbus's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.22 for VfL Bochum.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Energie Cottbus at home · VfL Bochum away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Energie CottbusVfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus are 7th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); VfL Bochum are 12th after 7 (between 6th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Energie Cottbus 7, VfL Bochum 7.
Energie Cottbus score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); VfL Bochum have let in 1 there.
VfL Bochum score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Energie Cottbus have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Energie Cottbus
- at Eintracht Braunschweig6 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Hertha BSC22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
- at 1. FC Magdeburg29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
VfL Bochum
- vs Karlsruher SC8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- at FC St. Pauli21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
- vs SV Darmstadt 9827 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.